Milling & Baking News - August 18, 2015 - 7

Editorial

Message from baking, milling data

ew, if any, supplier industries have a closer tie six months of 2015 (see report on Page 36) highlights
to the well-being of its major customers than several conclusions. One is that total flour utilization
the relationship of flour milling to baking. As is holding nearly steady as reflected in production of
a result, taking the pulse of one sector provides im- 208 million hundredweights. That half-year output
portant insights into how the other is doing. Albeit, is down less than 2 million hundredweights from the
strikingly different issues may weigh on both to cre- prior year, of which most is due to differences in exate periodic dichotomies when milling may be suf- ports and imports. While there is nothing wrong in
fering from developments that are outside the influ- assessing an industry using such data, it is imperaence of baking and baking may experience a range of tive to note that steady output figures related to conissues that do not directly affect how its suppliers of sumption mean lower per capita consumption at a
flour are doing.
time when population growth is continuing.
The present provides a remarkable example of
In addition to data on flour production, the NASS
how each industry may face serious issues even report says daily flour milling capacity increased
though taking a measure of
to a record high of 1,622,899
each reveals positive condihundredweights in the secMillers are just as wary as bakers
tions. Overall baking volond quarter of this year. Rein wanting to be alert to the
ume, which relates directly to
lating that peak capacity to
near revolution under way in
the main business of its flour
the quarter's output indicates
the consumer marketplace due
milling suppliers, is quite
a running time for American
to shifting consumer attitudes
good but for shortfalls in a
mills in the second quarter of
toward food in general and
few specific areas like private
84.1 per cent of six-day capactoward every kind of baked food.
label bread. Except for discloity. That operating rate is the
sures by individual companies, it is quite difficult to lowest in 11 years, or since the same quarter in 2004
measure how baking is doing volume-wise. That is when milling and baking felt the worst of the Atkins
particularly the case in light of the way the structure anti-carbohydrate attacks.
of baking has changed recently.
To have the run rate fall from a fairly lengthy peMilling has very much the same positive attitude riod when it hovered near 90%, which is the target
about the status of grain-based foods. Millers are just indicating maximum efficiency, is a warning shot
as wary as bakers in wanting to be alert to the near across milling's bow. That is a self-inflicted "shot,"
revolution under way in the consumer marketplace seeing as how the numerator in determining run
due to shifting consumer attitudes toward food in time, milling production, is within a few hundredgeneral and toward every kind of baked food. Re- weights of being at a new record. It is the denominagardless of how individual millers may feel about the tor, which is the daily milling capacity converted to
direction of their own industry as well as of baking, a capacity for the quarter, that has caused this fall in
they have access to specific production figures cover- the run rate of milling. At a time when output was
ing their industry and its major sectors. They watch slightly less than last year, daily capacity showed an
statistics compiled by an agency of the U.S. Depart- equally small gain, leading to an operating average
ment of Agriculture. This is the National Agricultural three to four percentage points below a year earlier.
Statistics Service (NASS), which began covering millThis is not the first time milling capacity has run
ing last year. Similar statistics have been issued for ahead of production. The signal this provides to millnearly a full century. No other food industry has a ers is clear and no different from the way a shortfall
better data record than grain-based foods.
in retail space and sales warns bakers of the need for
Examining flour production data covering the first moderating plant expansion. MBN
MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
WE'RE EAGER TO GET YOUR FEEDBACK: E-mail editor@sosland.com or write to us at
Milling & Baking News, 4801 Main Street, Suite 650, Kansas City, Mo, 64112
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Milling & Baking News - August 18, 2015

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