Milling & Baking News - September 15, 2015 - 45

Global trade in wheat flour holding
in total but major country changes
LONDON - In its August quarterly
update on global trade in wheat flour,
the International Grains Council left
the total in prospect for 2015-16 unchanged, but made several major
changes in export and import forecasts for specific nations. For the total export prospect, the I.G.C. placed
the total for the current season at
13,500,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, the same as the initial forecast issued in May.
While this season's prospective world flour trade
would be down from
13,770,000 tonnes shipped
in the prior season, it
would exceed the outgo
of 13,130,000 in 2013-14 and
12,650,000 in 2012-13. The record in world flour exports was
14,560,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent
in 2011-12.
While holding its forecast of world
flour exports in 2015-16 unchanged
from a quarter earlier, the new I.G.C.
estimate included changes for individual countries. The most dramatic
of those was in Turkey's exports,
which affirmed it as the top flour
exporting nation for a number of
years. Indeed, the Council's projection for Turkey's exports in 2014-15
was boosted by 1 million tonnes to a
level that represented 25.6% of global
flour shipments. The revised forecast
of Turkey's exports in 2015-16 was up
900,000 tonnes from the quarter earlier
to a total equal to 26.3%.
The I.G.C. does not include exports
of durum semolina in global flour
trade, but makes a separate estimate
for this volume. For 2015-16, durum
semolina exports were projected to
reach 350,000 tonnes, against 360,000
in 2014-15 and 350,000 in 2013-14.
Adding this total to the wheat flour
shipments produces an aggregate of
13,850,000 tonnes in 2015-16, compared with 14,130,000 in 2014-15.
As previously noted, the revised
export estimates for Turkey, in the
current season and earlier, show
that country dominating global flour
trade. At one time, Kazakhstan competed with Turkey for this leadership,
but the revised figures show Turkey
leading the world in every recent
year except 2011-12 when world volume reached the all-time record of
14,560,000 tonnes (14,950,000 including durum semolina). In the latter
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

year, Kazakhstan led with shipments
of 3,652,000 tonnes followed by Turkey at 3,013,000 tonnes of wheat
equivalent.
In the current season, Turkey's flour
shipments forecast at 3,600,000 tonnes
compare with Kazakhstan at 2,800,000
tonnes, with respective shares of
26.3% and 20.7%. Thus, the two countries come within range of accounting
for half of global flour trade.
Kazakhstan's
prospective export gain of 17%, to
2,800,000 tonnes, reflected
its larger local wheat crop
of better quality than the
year before.
In commenting on the
2% decrease in global flour
trade it now forecasts, the
I.G.C. said that demand in all regions was likely to be in line with the
prior year. It pointed out that "disruptions to local supply chains caused by
armed conflicts could underpin flour
imports in parts of Near East Asia,

Export and Trade Issues

particularly in Iraq and Syria." It also
noted that imports into sub-Sahara Africa, estimated at 2,250,000 tonnes, are
supported at a high level by low prices
and growing demand for wheat-based
foods.
Iraq, expected to take 1,500,000
tonnes, and Afghanistan, forecast at
1,400,000, were shown as the leading world importers of wheat flour
in 2015-16. The only other importing
country expected to take more than a
million tonnes was Uzbekistan, with
imports forecast at 1,200,000.
In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil
continued as the largest importer, with
takings this season projected at 600,000
tonnes, compared with 550,000 in the
prior season.
U.S. imports were forecast at 250,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent, against
the record of 322,000 in 2014-15. U.S.
exports in 2015-16 were forecast at
350,000 tonnes, down from 385,000 in
2014-15.
Angola continued as Africa's leading importer of wheat flour, with its
takings this season forecast at 640,000
tonnes, compared with 627,000 in
2014-15. MBN

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Milling & Baking News XSeptember 15, 2015 / 45

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Milling & Baking News - September 15, 2015

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