Milling & Baking News - November 24, 2015 - 49

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

Plenty of corn, not enough demand

T

here is no shortage of corn either
domestically or globally in the
current 2015-16 marketing year.
The 2015 U.S. corn crop, forecast at 13,654
million bus by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture on Nov. 10, if realized, will
be the third largest ever, behind last
year's record 14,216 million bus and
13,829 million bus in 2013. The U.S. corn
carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected
by the U.S.D.A. at 1,760 million bus, up
2% from 2015 and up 43% from 2014.
In its November Crop Production
and World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates reports, the
Indexes
U.S.D.A. raised from October its 2015
corn production estimate by 99 million
Saltine Cracker Ingredients
bus while reducing its forecast 201516 total corn use by 100 million bus,
for a net swing of 199 million bus,
reﬂected in a 13% increase in the
projected carryover from last month.
The U.S.D.A. lowered from October its
forecast average price of corn paid to
farmers by 15c, to a range of $3.35 to
$3.95 a bu for 2015-16. (See additional
corn price discussion in the Grain
Market Roundtable on Page 37.)
The U.S.D.A.'s near 1% increase from
Bagel Ingredients
October in its 2015 corn crop estimate was
the biggest surprise to the market, said
Paul Meyers, vice-president, commodity
analysis, Foresight Commodity Services,
Inc., Naperville, Ill. While he thought
the number may have been even higher,
a number of analysts had forecast lower
production, believing the U.S.D.A. had
overstated its October forecast.
The U.S. average corn yield, forecast
at 169.3 bus an acre, if realized, was
second only to 171 bus an acre in 2014.
The U.S.D.A. expects record-high yields
Price Indicators
in top-producing Iowa as well as in
2
3
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, South
Dakota, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland,
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
Michigan, Mississippi and Virginia.
Pan-bread flour
The corn crop in the 18 major states
Wheat futures,
was 85% harvested as of Nov. 1, the
K.C., December
date on which yields were estimated. By
Hard winter
Nov. 15, harvesting was 96% completed,
premiums,
and at 99% or above in Illinois, Indiana,
12.2% protein
Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North
Millfeed, K.C.,
Carolina and Ohio, according to
30-day
the U.S.D.A. Most areas enjoyed an
Soybean oil
outstanding harvest season.
Cane sugar
Mr. Meyers said he could see the
Cocoa
U.S.D.A. boosting the 2015 U.S. corn
bakingbusiness.com
/ world-grain.com
49 / July 3, 2007 X
Milling & Baking News

crop by another 50 million to 75 million
bus in its annual report in January.
While the major surprise may have
been in the crop report, the November
WASDE report offered interesting
changes as well.
A 25-million-bu increase from October
in feed and residual use in 2015-16, due
to low corn prices, was more than offset
by cuts of 75 million bus in corn used for
ethanol and 50 million bus in exports.
The ethanol reduction was driven by
lower sorghum exports, much of which

the U.S.D.A. expected will replace corn.
The 2015-16 corn export forecast was
lowered based on slow export sales to
date as the strong dollar makes exports
from Brazil more competitive.
Mr. Meyers suggested corn exports
may be trimmed another 100 million to
150 million bus in later reports.
Globally, corn supplies also were
ample. The U.S.D.A. made multiple
changes from October in its 2014-15
estimates and 2015-16 projections for
coarse grain and corn with the net result
a 24.08-million-tonne, or 13%, increase
in 2015-16 global corn ending stocks,
projected at 211.91 million tonnes, up 2%
from 2014-15.
"This month's sharp rise in 2015-16
global coarse grain supplies (of which
corn makes up 86%) is driven mostly
by downward revisions to China corn
feeding for 2013-14 through 2015-16,"
the U.S.D.A. said. "China corn beginning
stocks are raised 18.8 million tonnes for
2015-16 reﬂecting the impact of lower
estimated feed use for the preceding
marketing years." MBN
Milling & Baking
News XNovember
24, 2015 / 49
bakingbusiness.com
/ world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - November 24, 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - November 24, 2015
