Milling & Baking News - December 22, 2015 - 18

Data X

U.S.D.A. issues lackluster forecast
for long-range wheat production
WASHINGTON - The outlook for
wheat plantings and production in
the next several years was mostly flat,
even depressing, based on long-term
projections issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Dec. 11.
The U.S.D.A. forecast area planted
to wheat for harvest in 2016 at 53 million acres, down 1.6 million acres from
54.6 million acres in 2015. With the exception of 2010, when wheat seedings
were 52.6 million acres, the forecast
2016 wheat-planted area would be
the smallest since 48.7 million acres in
1970. Worse, the 2016 planted wheat
area would be the largest in projections extending through 2025. Planted
area was projected to drop to 51 million
acres in 2017 and rebound to only 51.5
million acres in 2018 and then remain
flat at 51.5 million acres through 2025.
The U.S.D.A. projected harvested
area of wheat in 2016 at 44.9 million
acres, which would be the smallest

since 43.6 million acres in 1970. Harvested area was projected to drop
to 43.2 million acres in 2017, which
would be the smallest harvested area
in records extending back to 1961. Harvested area was projected to manage a
feeble bounce to 43.6 million acres in
2017 and then remain flat through 2025.
Average wheat yield was projected
to increase only slightly from year to
year with the 2016 projection at 45.9
bus per acre and the projection for
2025, the end of the long-term projection period, at 49.1 bus per acre. The
yield projections assumed no adoption of bioengineering technology.
The U.S.D.A. preliminarily projected 2016 wheat production at 2,060 million bus, up 8 million bus from 2,052
million bus in 2015. Production was
projected to drop to 2,000 million bus
in 2017 and then increase steadily until
2025, when production was projected
to reach 2,140 million bus.

The use side of the balance sheet also
failed to inspire. Food use of wheat
was forecast to increase slowly with
population growth from 974 million
bus as the 2016-17 forecast to 1,037 million bus in 2025-26. Seed use of wheat
projections (69 million bus for 2016-17
and 70 million bus for 2017-18 through
2025-26) reflected the disappointing
planting projections. Feed and residual
use of wheat was forecast at 225 million
bus in 2016-17, but that was expected
to be the high point for the period with
only 175 million bus per year projected
from 2022-23 through 2025-26.
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2016-17 wheat
ending stocks at 928 million bus with
ending stocks projected to decline in
each subsequent year through 202324, when the yearend inventory was
projected at 669 million bus. The 202425 endings stocks would equal the
2023-24 projection with 2025-26 ending stocks projected at 667 million bus.
The average farm price of wheat in
2016-17 was projected at $4.40 a bu
compared with a forecast $5 in 2015-16
and $5.99 in 2014-15. MBN

U.S. wheat long-term projections
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25
Area (million acres):
Planted acres
Harvested acres

2025/26

56.8
46.4

54.6
47.1

53.0
44.9

51.0
43.2

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

51.5
43.6

Yield:
Bushels per harvested acre 43.7

43.6

45.9

46.3

46.7

47.0

47.4

47.7

48.1

48.4

48.8

49.1

Supply and use (million bushels):
Beginning stocks
590
753
Production
2,026
2,052
Imports
149
125
Supply
2,766
2,930
Food
958
967
Seed
81
72
Feed & residual
120
180
Domestic use
1,159
1,219
Exports
854
800
Total use
2,013
2,019
Ending stocks
753
911
Stocks/use ratio, %
37.4
45.1

911
2,060
125
3,096
974
69
225
1,268
900
2,168
928
42.8

928
2,000
130
3,058
981
70
215
1,266
950
2,216
842
38.0

842
2,035
135
3,012
988
70
210
1,268
960
2,228
784
35.2

784
2,050
140
2,974
995
70
200
1,265
970
2,235
739
33.1

739
2,065
145
2,949
1,002
70
190
1,262
980
2,242
707
31.5

707
2,080
150
2,937
1,009
70
180
1,259
990
2,249
688
30.6

688
2,095
155
2,938
1,016
70
175
1,261
1,000
2,261
677
29.9

677
2,110
160
2,947
1,023
70
175
1,268
1,010
2,278
669
29.4

669
2,130
165
2,964
1,030
70
175
1,275
1,020
2,295
669
29.2

669
2,140
170
2,979
1,037
70
175
1,282
1,030
2,312
667
28.8

4.40

4.50

4.60

4.65

4.70

4.75

4.80

4.85

4.90

4.95

Prices (dollars per bushel):
Farm price
5.99

5.00

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

C.P.I. for baked foods and cereal
declines 0.7% in November
WASHINGTON - The Consumer
Price Index for baked foods and
cereal products decreased 0.7% in
November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.
18 / December 22, 2015 XMilling & Baking News

Department of Labor. The index for
all food at home also finished lower,
falling 0.7%.
Of the 18 items followed by
Milling & Baking News, 14 posted

month-over-month decreases, while
4 finished higher.
The November index for Cereals and
Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 273.8% of the 1982-84 average, up 1.3% from a year ago. For all
food at home, the November index was
242.2, up 0.2% from November 2014.
The C.P.I. for cereals and cereal
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
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Milling & Baking News - December 22, 2015

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