Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2016 - 47

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

Ontario wheat crop seen 45%
larger than in 2015

S

cott
Krakar,
eastern
wheat
merchandising manager, London
Agricultural Commodities, Inc.,
London, Ont., speaking before the
annual soft wheat division meeting of
the North American Millers' Association
at St. Pete Beach, Fla., on March 15,
forecast Ontario wheat production in
2016 at 82.5 million bus, up 25.5 million
bus, or 45%, from 57 million bus in 2015.
The forecast increase was entirely in
winter wheat production with the hard
Indexes
red spring wheat crop in the province
projected to be smaller than in 2015.
White Pan Bread Ingredients
In many years, the Ontario soft winter
wheat crops provide much valued and
often needed supply to American millers
seeking to supplement what is grown by
producers in the United States.
Mr. Krakar said the 2016 Ontario
winter wheat crop was planted last fall
in nearly ideal conditions, which was
in sharp contrast to the previous year,
when Ontario farmers in the fall of
2014 were not able to plant all the acres
they intended because of cold and wet
Cake Donut Ingredients
conditions.
Mr. Krakar said, according to crop
insurance data, Ontario farmers seeded
950,000 acres to winter wheat for harvest
this year, up 325,000 acres, or 52%, from
625,000 acres for 2015.
Based on a trendline winter wheat
average yield of 80 bus per acre, Mr.
Krakar forecast an Ontario winter wheat
crop of 76 million bus, up 27 million
bus, or 55%, from 49 million bus in 2015.
Mr. Krakar noted because of difﬁcult
growing conditions for the 2015 crop,
Price Indicators
average winter wheat yield in that year
2
3
dropped below the trendline and was
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS
about 78.4 bus per acre.
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
Mr. Krakar forecast the province's
Pan-bread flour
soft red winter wheat production in
Wheat futures,
2016 at 61.6 million bus, up 21.9 million
K.C., May
bus, or 55%, from 39.7 million bus in
Hard winter
2015. He noted soft red winter wheat
premiums,
would comprise 75% of Ontario's
12.2% protein
wheat production in 2016, whereas
Millfeed, K.C.,
in 2015 it accounted for 70% of the
30-day
province's wheat outturn. He noted
Soybean oil
in the previous year, areas typically
Cane sugar
dominated by soft red winter wheat
Cocoa
were the most adversely affected by the
bakingbusiness.com
/ world-grain.com
47
/ July 3, 2007 X
Milling & Baking News

foul fall 2014 weather pattern.
Mr. Krakar forecast soft white winter
wheat production at 6.8 million bus, up
3.9 million bus from 2.9 million bus in
2015. Soft white winter wheat production
would account for 8% of the province's
total wheat outturn compared with
5% last year. Hard red winter wheat
production was forecast at 7.6 million
bus, up 1.2 million bus, or 19%, from 6.4
million bus a year ago. Hard red winter
wheat production would comprise 9%

of the Ontario wheat outturn this year
compared with 11% in 2015.
Mr. Krakar projected hard red spring
wheat plantings in Ontario in 2016 at
120,000 acres, down 5,000 acres from
2015. Spring wheat yields were expected
to average 54 bus per acre compared
with the outstanding crop average of
64 bus per acre in 2015. Mr. Krakar
projected a spring wheat crop in 2016
at 6.5 million bus, down 1.5 million bus,
or 19%, from 8 million bus as the 2015
outturn.
Mr. Krakar projected 1 million tonnes
(about 36.7 million bus) of Ontario wheat
would be used by the domestic Canadian ﬂour, feed and seed industries in the
2016-17 crop year. He said about 550,000
tonnes (about 20.2 million bus) would be
exported. He forecast Ontario's 2016-17
wheat ending stocks at 670,000 tonnes
(24.6 million bus), the largest year-ending inventory in recent years. MBN
Milling bakingbusiness.com
& Baking News X/March
29, 2016 / 47
world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2016
