Milling & Baking News - March 29, 2016 - 7

Editorial

Flour output differences by states

n analyzing data covering wheat flour produc- the NASS report that definitely affirms this standtion by U.S. mills in the 2015 calendar year, the ing. It was not until 2007 that flour output data
February 16 issue of this magazine calls atten- were issued for California, and its running time in
tion to obstacles that arise in comparing state-by- that year averaged 94.3 per cent, contrasted with
state information with prior years. These problems 81.1 per cent in 2015, while its share of national
do not stem from the compilations released by the output, at 7.1 per cent in 2015, is unchanged from
National Agricultural Statistics Service, the U.S. De- eight years earlier. Among findings these numbers
partment of Agriculture agency that has won only emphasize is that California mills did not add to
praise for its first effort in taking over this series. The their capacity but gained the leadership because of
new NASS data differ substantially from the prior cutbacks in Kansas. The same may be said of Minfour years compiled by the North American Millers' nesota, which moved to second.
Association and also to a lesser degree from earlier
Using state data to examine what occurred in U.S.
Census Bureau compilations. The NAMA data were flour milling during the first 15 years of the 21st
assembled differently, while Census statistics reflect century describes an industry undergoing changes
different state groupings.
in specific areas that appear greater compared with
Yet, having acknowledged
a rather steady national asthese discrepancies, there is
Emerging is a picture of a
sessment. U.S. flour output in
still great merit in examin2015 was 424,894,000 hundredkey American food industry
ing milling operations among
weights, against 421,270,000 in
undergoing dynamic change on a
various states and regions. Not state and regional level even while 2000; daily capacity totaled
only is such information of valhundredweights
national numbers seem to portray 1,617,829
ue to individual milling comin 2015, against 1,530,670 at
a different flour milling industry.
panies in analyzing plant and
the century's start, and runregional operations and locations, but it is significant ning time averaged 85.5 per cent of daily capacity,
for the guidance provided about area demand trends against 89.6 per cent earlier. Those changes are best
for wheat and, yes, for flour and the many consumer described as minimal. A different picture emerges
products that utilize flour as a key ingredient.
in looking at state shifts. As reflected by shares of
Kansas presents one of the important problems in national data, substantial daily capacity decreases
making comparisons. NAMA, in compiling the data occurred in Missouri and Pennsylvania, while inbetween 2011 and 2014, grouped Kansas with other creases of at least half a percentage point occurred
states. In effect, this means that there is no output num- in Ohio, North Dakota, Texas, North Carolina and
ber for Kansas mills for four years. Yet, even the limited Michigan. As compared with earlier periods when
information reveals that Kansas, once the national lead- capacity expansion focused along the West and East
er among states in flour production, has fallen to third coasts, it is noteworthy how more of this period's adplace behind California and Minnesota. Kansas turned ditions were in central parts. Relatively small gains
out 10 per cent of national output in 2000, the turning appeared in wheat-producing regions.
point in centuries, but fell to 6.4 per cent in 2015, a findMany more observations, particularly in compariing from the NASS report. The latter output fall did not sons of running time as well as differences among
improve Kansas' operating rates, which averaged 76.6 states in running time compared with the national
per cent of daily capacity last year, compared with 85.1 average are possible with these output numbers.
per cent in 2000. All U.S. mills ran at 85.5 per cent of Emerging is a picture of a key American food industry
capacity in 2015, against 89.6 per cent in 2000.
undergoing dynamic change on a state and regional
California probably became the state leader in level even while national numbers seem to portray a
producing flour several years before 2015, but it is different flour milling industry. MBN
MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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