Milling & Baking News - March 14, 2017 - 44

Export and Trade Issues X

Global flour export forecast raised
again by I.G.C., setting new record
LONDON - Once again in its quarterly assessment of
world trade in wheat flour, the International Grains Council raised its estimate of this crop year's trade to an even
larger new record than previously indicated. In its February Grain Market Report, the I.G.C. placed prospective
flour trade in 2016-17 at 16,100,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, up 600,000 tonnes from the prior expectation. The record forecast, also marking the first time that trade
in wheat flour has exceeded 16 million tonnes,
reflected a minimal gain from the revised export
shipments in 2015-16 of 15,900,000 tonnes.
Global flour exports have been on an upward
trend since the recent trade low of 12,650,000
tonnes was reached in 2012-13. The new estimate, reflecting flour exports in terms of wheat
ground, was equal to nearly 260 million cwts of
flour. Flour exports first passed 12 million tonnes in 200708, 13 million and 14 million in 2011-12, and 15 million in
2015-16. It was in 2002-03, near the start of the 21st century,
that first saw flour exports above 10 million tonnes.
The I.G.C. does not include exports of durum semolina
in its computations on global flour exports. Durum semolina shipments in the current crop season were forecast at
420,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, compared with 400,000
in the previous crop season. Adding in these exports brings

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44 / March 14, 2017 XMilling & Baking News

the prospective 2016-17 total outgo to 16,620,000 tonnes,
against 16,200,000 in the preceding season.
Exporter gains in expanding flour trade were widely
scattered among nations. Turkey, which is the leading
flour exporter by a wide margin, saw its forecast boosted
by 100,000 tonnes to 5,400,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent,
against 4,940,000 tonnes in 2015-16 and 3,531,000 in 201415. With its trade accounting for 33.5% of the world
export total, Turkey's lead was unprecedented.
Continuing in second place was Kazakhstan,
also registering a 100,000-tonne increase, to
3,200,000 tonnes. That compares with 3 million
in 2015-16 and 2,385,000 in 2014-15. Kazakhstan's
share of world exports reached 19.9%, also a new
mark for that country mainly delivering flour to
neighboring former members of the Soviet Union
such as Uzbekistan and also Afghanistan.
The European Union, which comprises 28 member countries, was the only other exporter in the million-tonne category,
with expected shipments now at 1 million tonnes. Prior to this
outgo, shipments by the E.U. had been near 900,000 tonnes.
The export forecast for Argentina was increased to
850,000 tonnes, a four-year peak, compared with 717,000 in
2015-16 and only 324,000 in 2013-14.
Major flour import increases between the last I.G.C. report and the latest this February included Uzbekistan,
Mexico, Brazil and Afghanistan. The latter country ranked
at the top of flour importers, expected now to take 2,600,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent in 2016-17, up 300,000 from its
previous outlook. Its outlook still lagged the 2015-16 inflow of 2,654,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, but were well
above the 2014-15 intake of 1,816,000.
Largely as the result of the Kazakhstan increase, flour
imports into Far East Asia in 2016-17 were forecast to total
4,570,000 tonnes, up 230,000 from the prior number and
compared with 4,960,000 in 2015-16 and 3,940,000 in 2014-15.
Also showing a sizable increase were likely imports into
North and Central America, placed at 1,070,000 tonnes, up
160,000 from a quarter earlier and compared with 1,030,000
in 2015-16. Mexico's increased imports of 100,000 tonnes, to
300,000, were mainly responsible for the area increase.
Imports into South America were newly estimated at
1,040,000 tonnes, against 780,000 previously estimated,
and also taken in 2015-16. Brazil's likely imports in the current crop year were boosted by 200,000 tonnes to 700,000,
against 460,000 in 2015-16.
Near East Asia was notable for the lack of major revision
in its estimated imports. The total was 3,460,000 tonnes,
down 30,000 from the previous quarterly forecast and compared with 3,290,000 in 2015-16.
The flour import forecast for Far East Asia was raised
230,000 tonnes, to 4,570,000 tonnes, against 4,860,000 in
2015-16. The 300,000-tonne increase for Afghanistan was
primarily responsible for this change.
African countries also posted relatively small changes from
a quarter earlier. The total of flour imports into Africa was
placed at 2,630,000 tonnes, up 20,000 from the prior quarter,
and compared with 2,850,000 in the preceding crop year.
The largest flour importers in Africa included Sudan,
expected to take 800,000 tonnes, followed by Angola at
600,000. Takings of wheat flour by both countries were in
line with prior crop years. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.knappen.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - March 14, 2017

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