Milling & Baking News - March 28, 2017 - 7

Editorial

Refined data has same message

n looking at the many implications of data is- rose from 3.6 ounces in the late 1970s.
sued periodically by the U.S. Department of
The message derived from estimates showing
Agriculture's Economic Research Service on daily consumption of calories provided by wheat
wheat flour disappearance, it is essential not to flour does tend to present a sharper fall than reneglect related estimates made along somewhat vealed by other measures. Thus, from the peak of
different lines. Here attention is paid to the actual 440.8 calories available per day from wheat flour
amount of food consumed after deducting losses foods to the current total slightly below 400 is a
from producing flour mills through commercial fall that sounds a warning. It is important to recprocessing and distribution as well as at home. ognize that the E.R.S. makes use of food patterns
It is another part of the E.R.S. that estimates con- in American eating to estimate how many calories
sumption that is different from production. For a are consumed daily.
long time, the E.R.S. estimated that 30 per cent was
Using the same food pattern equivalents to eslost. In the latest study the annual loss has been timate the number of calories consumed per day
slightly revised to 29.6 per cent.
is presented for each year. Since this number reWith the latest report on wheat flour supply flects both changes in what Americans are eating
and disappearance placing per capita availability as well as the availability of wheat flour, the yearat 133 pounds, the new loss
to-year changes are quite difestimate says 93.6 pounds are
An excellent case may be made ferent from the picture based
consumed. Roughly 10 per cent
on wheat flour supply less exto enlist all processors of food
of wheat flour is used at home, from grains in efforts to reverse ports divided by the populaleaving 90 per cent baked or
tion total. The latest estimate of
negative attitudes about the
processed outside the home.
daily ounces per day of wheat
importance of grains as foods.
At that actual consumption
flour eaten is 4.912 ounces, the
of 93.6, flour use in 2015 was nearly the smallest most since 4.914 in 2008 and compared with 5.262
since 1986 when the estimate was 88.4 pounds. The in 2000. The latter is the highest level of the past 50
recent peak in consumption was 103.3 pounds in years. Yet, the decline the most recent calculations
1997, the same year per capita supply hit its recent point to have little significance. Of course, when
high. And there is the single exception of 2011 at related to a loaf of bread that decrease is measure93.3. This obviously negative trend duplicates the able to wholesale bakers and emphasizes the urdisturbing message from earlier estimates reveal- gency of finding ways to reverse these trends.
ing per capita flour supply's downtrend.
Indeed, an excellent case may be made to enlist
Yet, the disappearance figures computed from all processors of food from grains in efforts to reactual consumption analysis would also show verse negative attitudes about the importance of
how relatively small these changes are from year grains as foods. Even though variations may be
to year when looked at from a per-person and cited from the pattern of wheat flour, grains as
per-day point of view. Converting the pounds of a whole have much the same trends that merit a
actual consumption into ounces per person per powerful response underscoring the true role of
day quite literally makes the worrying annual grain foods in the diet. According to the E.R.S.,
numbers into slight changes. The E.R.S. places ac- all grain foods reflected real per capita consumptual consumption of wheat flour at 4.2 ounces per tion of 101.3 pounds in 1980, which rose to 137.6
capita per day, compared with the recent high of in 2000 and fell to 122.6 currently. The case is
4.5 ounces in 2000. That 4.5 ounces is the present- stark, and the need for action could not be more
era peak in daily consumption per person, and it strongly defined. MBN
MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
WE'RE EAGER TO GET YOUR FEEDBACK: E-mail editor@sosland.com or write to us at
Milling & Baking News, 4801 Main Street, Suite 650, Kansas City, Mo, 64112
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