Milling & Baking News - September 12, 2017 - 32

Washington X

President Trump's agenda:
Delayed or derailed?
WASHINGTON - As Congress returns
from its August recess, the key question is: What will happen to President
Donald Trump's agenda? Little has
been accomplished to date, and August
brought new distractions, including
more staff firings, criticisms of Republican allies in Congress, the Charlottesville, Va., controversy and the aftermath
of Hurricane Harvey. Will President
Trump's proposals be slowed down, or
have such events blocked them?
President-elect Trump had a number
of key issues he wanted to pursue: appointing a conservative Supreme Court
justice; moving an international economic program that rescinded or renegotiated trade and other agreements;
controlling America's borders through
immigration reform, including building
a wall along the border with Mexico; cutting back on growth in federal spending
and regulation; repealing and replacing
the Affordable Care Act (A.C.A.); cutting income tax rates on corporations
while providing tax relief and reform
for individuals; and launching a massive
infrastructure investment effort to boost
the economy and U.S. competitiveness.
Where does this agenda stand nine
months into Trump's presidency?
The record to date
International agreements received
early and aggressive attention. He
withdrew the United States from the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (T.P.P.); he
pulled the country out of the Paris climate agreement; he initiated a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) under tight deadlines; and while twice affirming Iranian
compliance with the nuclear agreement
he has indicated strong doubts about it.
From a purely agricultural perspective these steps do not necessarily
equate to gains. U.S. agricultural exports to Pacific Rim countries could
be disadvantaged if the other 11 countries in the T.P.P. proceed to a final deal
and implementation.
With respect to NAFTA, while there
are some areas of market access (e.g.,
poultry and dairy) and some sanitary/
phytosanitary regulations that could
boost trade, agriculture's main concern is that the renegotiation "do no
harm" to a large, growing and prosperous market. The withdrawal from
the Paris climate agreement has less
direct implications for U.S. agriculture
32 / September 12, 2017 XMilling & Baking News

(similarly with a potential future reimposition of sanctions on Iran), but such
actions would further exacerbate relations with allies and customers.
The Supreme Court nominee - Neil
Gorsuch - did get confirmed, which
brought another conservative voice to
the Court. But this only was achieved
by changing the rules for approving
such nominees from a super majority
to a simple one. The long-term effect
could be to create a more partisan Supreme Court.
On health care, President Trump and
Congress have failed to agree on any

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BY ROBBIN S. JOHNSON

strategy. Simple repeal and "repeal and
replace" have both failed. President
Trump has blamed these failures on
the Republican leadership in Congress,
straining ties he will need to move his
agenda forward. And there continues to be no clear direction on health
care policy, with options ranging from
maintaining federal subsidies that help
to keep the A.C.A. afloat to withdrawing such subsidies, experiencing higher
insurance rates, lower participation
rates and, possibly, the "death spiral"
that some fear from the A.C.A. A decision here is needed soon, before the
sign-up period for next year's coverage
(Nov. 1- Dec. 15) begins.
The struggles over the A.C.A. have
slowed movement on other legislative fronts. Treasury Secretary Steve
Mnuchin's August deadline has
passed without a tax bill tabled. The
need to raise the debt ceiling by the end
of the federal government's fiscal year
has become entwined with a battle
over funding the Mexican border wall.
No substantive infrastructure measure
has been introduced. And the Trump
administration's budget proposal was
deemed "dead on arrival" in Congress
because of draconian cuts to a variety
of programs that enjoy broad support,
even among Republicans.
Going forward
A variety of forces have come

together to undermine further prospects for President Trump's agenda.
More and more "sanctuary cities"
have expressed their willingness not
to cooperate with immigration enforcement efforts. The racial tensions
rekindled in the aftermath of Charlottesville and President Trump's
comments about the incident seem
to have strengthened this resistance.
Hurricane Harvey's devastation
in Houston and in surrounding communities appears to have changed
spending priorities, with funding for a
wall along the southern border a likely
victim. Promised infrastructure funding now must compete with funding
for reconstruction efforts in the affected areas, beginning at $8 billion but
likely to go much higher. This disaster
also seems to have changed the tone
in Washington, with deficit hawks being less willing to face a showdown
and possible shutdown of the federal
government over the need to raise the
debt ceiling and pass a budget for the
coming fiscal year.
A Trump agenda item likely to receive attention in the coming month
is taxes. Here the road map to lower
corporate tax rates may have become
clearer, although they are unlikely to
fall as far as President Trump's 15%
target. Paying for tax cuts seems totally confused, with the Trump administration rejecting a "border adjustment
tax," and most other options having
generated serious, organized resistance. No consensus has emerged on
proposals to reform or simplify the individual tax code.
Consequently, the remaining months
of 2017 are unlikely to see significant
gains against President Trump's announced goals. Rather, the last quarter
of the year is likely to test whether the
political lessons of the last few months,
together with the resolve to deal with
the aftermath of Harvey, can be enough
to get some business done. Included in
that agenda are: securing a new debt
ceiling without a government shutdown, a business tax cut, a moderating budget and no radical surprises on
trade, immigration, Iran or North Korea. But, progress without confrontation requires compromise. Are all parties ready, or not? MBN

Robbin S. Johnson, a fellow
with the Hubert H. Humphrey
Institute of Public Affairs,
is a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - September 12, 2017

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