Milling & Baking News - September 26, 2017 - 26

Weather Outlook X

Brazil traders, farmers nervous
over persistent lack of rainfall
BY DREW LERNER

KANSAS CITY - Rain continues fleeting from farmers in Brazil, but Sept. 15
is really the first day in which planting
would normally begin. Having 10 days
of rain-free weather will wear on the
psyche of most producers and some
traders, but it may not be the "end of
the world." October showers are expected with slowly increasing rainfall
from late October through November.
A dry mid-September
in Brazil's coffee, sugarcane, citrus, corn and
soybean
production
region has many a producer and commodity
trader a bit concerned
about the 2017-18 crop
year. However, September rainfall can be erratic like this. That is why
in the "olden days"
farmers only produced
one crop in Brazil, and
they always waited
upon the seasonal onset
of monsoon moisture
that typically occurs in
October. However, back
in the "olden days"
Mato Grosso was not
the primary soybean
producing state and the
impact of delayed seasonal rainfall was often
insignificant
because
the main production areas were further south
where rainfall usually
comes in October.
Now that Mato Grosso
is the biggest soybean producing state
in Brazil and because it plants two crops
each year, delays in annual rainfall are
rarely tolerable and definitely raise issue
with the success of both crops.
Today's forecast models suggested
some showers would begin in the latter days of September. World Weather,
Inc. believes the precipitation will
continue to increase in early October.
However, the slow start to the season
does raise some potential problems
with getting the early soybean crop
planted early enough to assure a timely harvest that will leave sufficient
time for corn and cotton to be planted
normally early in 2018.
La Niña to blame?
La Niña-like conditions are getting
26 / September 26, 2017 XMilling & Baking News

some of the blame for delayed rainfall
in Brazil. What is most important to
note is that if we are going to see a full
blown La Niña event, there are two
other issues that need to be reviewed.
First, beyond the slow start of the
monsoon season there is usually an
onslaught of frequent moderate to
heavy rainfall in the first calendar
quarter of the year in which La Niña
exists. If that occurs this year, it could

rainfall was significant enough to induce coffee flowering and to stimulate some new growth in sugarcane
and citrus. Very little, if any, citrus
flowering was suspected, but flowering of coffee trees occurred from Parana into São Paulo, and there were
some reports of localized flowering
in southern Minas Gerais coffee areas, as well. Those coffee flowers
have aborted, and because Brazil
production was supposed to be huge
this year, the loss of some potential
cherries raises the potential for lower
yields since the trees are not always
successful in replacing
early aborted flowers.

Weather stressing crops
The recent warm
and dry weather in
coffee,
citrus
and
sugarcane areas has
stressed crops a little
more than usual because of the favorable rainfall that occurred in August that
stimulated a little new
growth. The stress occurring now seems
to be a little more serious in some areas
because of the false
start on rainfall. In the
meantime, there are
other reports of withering coffee trees and
leaf droppage. Some
of this withering and
90-day percentage of
leave droppage is nornormal rainfall ended
mal for plants stressed
Sept. 16, 2017
by dryness. It is a natural way to conserve
moisture. However, if
the dryness lasts too
result in a wet harvest season for late long, the crops will not be able to
planted early soybeans. The rainy support cherry development when
weather also could create some fur- seasonal rains finally arrive because
ther delay in the planting of second the plants will be busy restoring leaf
mass instead of developing cherries.
season (Safrinha) crops.
Brazil's climate is a wet/dry one in
The other issue that sometimes
occurs in La Niña years is that the which the winter receives very little
rainy season lasts a little longer than rain while the summer is very wet.
usual, and if that is the case, some The environment is similar to that
of these delays to planting soybeans of India in many respects. However,
and the planting of second season rainfall during the winter is rarely
crops may not be the disaster that enough to counter evaporation, makis feared. Late planting of Safrinha ing the significance of the past 90
crops might not end in a significant days of dryness much less than one
problem if late season rains linger might imagine. The rain that fell last
month has complicated the situation
for a longer period of time.
To complicate matters a little more, for the winter soft commodities, and
the coffee, sugarcane and citrus crops they will be more seriously stressed
were subjected to unusually sig- until rain falls. But for the corn and
nificant rainfall in mid-August. The soybean crop the situation can turn
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - September 26, 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - September 26, 2017