Meat&Poultry - December 2012 - 25

the ethanol industry has exacerbated input costs for producers,” said J. Patrick Boyle, president and CEO of the American Meat Institute. “Fighting for significant reform of the Renewable Fuel Standard will help ease the pressure on high grain prices and help us rebuild our herds,” he added. “It is essential that we all be vocal about the need to let our nation’s ethanol industry stand on its own and operate in the free market as all other users of corn do.”

sult in essentially no change in milk production in 2013. While milk prices are projected to remain lower than 2011 levels in both 2012 and 2013, anticipated prices for 2013 were raised somewhat in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Milk prices received by farmers averaged $20.14 per hundredweight (100 lbs.) in 2011, and are projected at $18.50$18.60 per hundredweight in 2012 and at $19.10-$20.00 per hundredweight in 2013.

Year-end results
As of Oct. 28, 54 percent of pastures and ranges in the United States were rated poor to very poor, compared with 58 percent on Sept. 9, just 40 percent at the same time in 2011, and 31 percent on average from 2000 to 2010. Lack of pasture is forcing growers to place cattle on feed at lower weights; this coupled with higher grain prices is further reducing prices of feeder cattle in the near term. The impact of placing cattle on feed sooner is likely to result in greater production declines in 2013 than in 2012, potentially leading to higher prices in 2013 and beyond. The final numbers for beef production in 2012 is projected to end up being 2.3 percent lower than 2011 levels, and decline another 4.2 percent in 2013, according to USDA Economic Research Service data. In addition: • Feedlot operators are paying lower prices for cattle as higher feed costs and reduced availability of pasture lead to increased supply of feeder cattle. Feeder cattle prices are expected to remain in the mid to upper $140 range for the remainder of this year and into 2013. • Imports of feeder cattle from Mexico began to decline in July and August and continued to drop in September. • Heat stress, higher feed prices and the potential for reduced hog and poultry inventories continue to dampen the outlook for pork and poultry production into 2013. • Broiler production estimates for 2012 and 2013 have been reduced to 36,889 and 36,445 million lbs., respectively, down from 37,201 million lbs. in 2011, due to higher feed costs. • Hog farrowings are expected to decline in the secondhalf of 2012 and the fi rst three quarters of 2013 because of high anticipated feed prices. Pork production for 2013 is expected to be slightly more than 1 percent below 2012 at 22,940 million lbs. • Milk production in 2012 is projected to be 1.7 percent higher than 2011, but high feed costs are expected to re-

Consumer effects
Experts predict the impact of the 2012 drought on consumers won’t be fully felt until 2013. The Food Institute predicts the drought will raise the year’s grocery bill for a family of four by $351.12 – $44 of which will be toward meat purchases. These increases come while Americans are still battling the recession. “According to CattleFax, consumers can expect to pay 5 to 8 percent more at the meat counter next year whether

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Meat&Poultry - December 2012

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