World Grain -- May 2011 - 76

FEATURE

High prices drive decline in

FLOUR EXPORTS
R
esistance to sharply higher prices was blamed by the International Grains Council (IGC) for a reduction in its recent estimate of world trade in wheat ﬂour in the 2010-11 season. In its latest analysis of trade prospects in the current season, the IGC placed the likely total at 11,700,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, down 530,000 tonnes from its prior forecast made late last November. At the indicated total, 2010-11 world trade in wheat ﬂour would have dipped to the lowest level in four years, or since 2006-07, when the global volume totaled 10,696,000. The estimated outgo for the current season would be down 9% from the world ﬂour trade record of 12,879,000 tonnes achieved in the 2009-10 crop year. The latest 2010-11 estimate, equal to 187 million cwts of ﬂour, was still sharply above the recent export low of 5,861,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent in 1985-86. Exports of durum semolina are not included in the IGC data on world ﬂour shipments. Those shipments recently have been at 200,000 tonnes per year. Adding that to the IGC aggregate brings global trade in all wheat ﬂour in 2010-11 to 11,900,000 tonnes, compared with 13,070,000 in 2009-10. The latter marked the ﬁrst time in history that global ﬂour exports exceeded 13 million tonnes of wheat equivalent. Price resistance was primarily felt in three countries that reduced their takings. The three are Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, which experienced reductions of 100,000 tonnes, 200,000 tonnes and 150,000, respectively, from prior estimates. Afghanistan, expected to import 1.3 million tonnes of wheat ﬂour in wheat equivalent this season, was once again the leading import ﬂour market. It has held that position for several years, reﬂecting the nation’s stepped-up food needs in response to the high level of military conﬂict under way in that country. The second largest ﬂour importing nation in 2010-11, according to IGC estimates, will be Uzbekistan, with takings forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, down from 1.5 million in the prior season, but in line with earlier years.
76

by Morton Sosland

Resistance to prices drops world flour export estimate
The only other country expected to import at least 1 million tonnes was Iraq, another nation where demand for ﬂour was affected by military actions. Its expected imports were down 200,000 from the prior prospect and showed the same decrease from 2009-10 takings. The latter were its largest imports in the recent period. Africa’s share of ﬂour imports continued on a pronounced downward course. The continent’s total expected imports in 2010-11 were reduced by the IGC to 1,790,000 tonnes, off 170,000 tonnes from the estimate of several months ago. African imports compared with 1,950,000 tonnes in 2009-10 and the recent peak of 2,554,000 in 2005-06. The continent’s high of recent decades was 3,944,000 tonnes in 1996-97, which accounted for 35% of global ﬂour trade. In the current season, Africa’s share of global ﬂour imports was slashed to 15%. IGC estimates of ﬂour exports by countries in 2010-11 showed a decrease from November in almost all of the principal shipping nations. Kazakhstan maintained its lead as the largest ﬂour shipper, its outgo newly estimated at 3 million tonnes, down 300,000 from the prior forecast and 15% below its record outgo of 3,515,000 tonnes in 2009-10. It has been the leader in ﬂour exporting since 2006-07. Holding second place for that same period was Turkey, with its shipments in 2010-11 estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, compared with 2.5 million in the previous crop season and 2,151,000 in 2008-09. The E.U. regained third place as a ﬂour exporter in 2010-11, forecast to ship 1.3 million tonnes in wheat equivalent, against 1,250,000 in the prior season and the recent high of 1,482,000
May 2011 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain -- May 2011

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