World Grain - June 2011 - 20

GRAINMARKETREVIEW

Rice
Record-breaking global production forecast for 2011-12; demand strong
by Chris Lyddon

India, Pakistan, U.S., and Vietnam rice exports India Pakistan Thailand United States
2010 2011 2012

Vietnam Rice production is up in 2010-11 and expected to rise to a record level the following year, despite a predicted fall in U.S. output. De0 2 4 6 8 10 mand for rice from the Middle East and Asia remains strong. Million tonnes (milled basis) The International Grains Council (IGC) now puts world rice production in 2010-11 at 450 million tonnes, up 10 million from the 2011 and 2012 are forecast Production, Supply, and Distribution data base, Foreign Agricultural Service, year before. It has consumption at 448 million tonnes, allowing a Source:http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd USDA, 3-million-tonne increase in stocks to 97 million tonnes, an eight-year peak. The IGC had the previous year’s rice production at 440 million U.S. medium/short-grain prices tonnes, with consumption at 437 million. $/cwt Million cwt (rough basis) “After last year’s solid rise, world trade is forecast to decrease by 2 100 27 percent to 30.3 million tonnes, reﬂecting a likely steep fall in imports Total medium/short-grain supplies 24 by the Philippines,” the IGC said. Medium/short-grain season-average farm price* 80 “The rise in output reﬂects a rebound in India’s main crop as well as 21 increases elsewhere in Asia, including China, Bangladesh and Indone18 sia. Brazil’s much-improved outturn will result in an increase in South 60 15 America’s output, to 16.3 million tonnes (from 14.9 million a year ago), while production in sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to expand 12 40 by 4%, to an all-time high of 11.8 million tonnes.” 9 The IGC predicted a sharp fall in U.S. output for 2011-12. The 6 most recent USDA Crop Progress Report puts rice plantings below 20 the ﬁve-year average by 14 percentage points for the six rice-grow3 ing states, according to the USA Rice Federation’s USA Rice Daily. 0 0 In a Rice Outlook report dated May 12, the USDA’s Economic Research Service predicted U.S. rice production at 211 million cwt, or 9.6 million tonnes, down 13% in its ﬁrst forecast for 2011-12. “The smaller crop is the result of a 17 percent decline in planted August-July market year area,” the ERS said. “The area decline is largely the result of better 2011-12 are forecast. returns for alternative crops such as soybeans, corn, and cotton at * 2011-12 are mid-points of the price ranges. planting and expectations of very large stocks of rice at the start of the Sources: 1990/91-2008/09, Rice Yearbook Data Set, Economic Research Service, USDA; 2009/10-2011/12, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 2011-12 market year.” http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm. Global rice production in 2011-12 is forecast at a record 457.9 million tonnes, up 1% from 2010-11. “The record crop is due to expanded plant- recent years, Vietnam’s exports were stronger than anticipated durings,” the ERS said. “Of the top 10 rice-producing countries (China, In- ing the ﬁrst quarter, up by 42% year-on-year, to 1.9 million tonnes. dia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, the Philippines, Consequently, the ofﬁcial 2011 export forecast was raised to a record Brazil, and Japan), all except Brazil and Japan are expected to harvest of at least 7.1 million tonnes (6.6 million last year). larger crops in 2011-12, with record production projected for BanglaHigher regional supplies had weighed on white and parboiled valdesh, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam.” ues in Thailand. “However, ofﬁcial data conﬁrmed a strong pace of According to the IGC, “Asian white and parboiled rice markets exports in 2011. As of March 31, cumulative shipments amounted were weighed by improved supplies from main and second-crop har- to 3 million tonnes, an increase of 41% compared with last year,” vests in key exporters during April. After reaching six-week highs in it said. The website of the Thai Rice Exporters Association carried late March, nearby U.S. rough rice futures were pressured by proﬁt a story quoting its vice-president, Sermsak Kuonsongtumas, saying taking and generally slow export demand.” that prices could peak at $550 a tonne in the third quarter. It also noted a marginal decline in broken rice markets in Vietnam. “Despite pressure from improved main (winter-spring) crop availChris Lyddon is World Grain’s European editor. abilities, f.o.b. offers were supported by recent strong international He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com. demand, notably from Cuba, Bangladesh and Indonesia,” it said. “Although the Philippines — typically its largest buyer — has se- We want to hear from you — Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@sosland. com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com. cured relatively small quantities from the world market compared to
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20 June 2011 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain - June 2011

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