World Grain - May 2012 - 24

COUNTRYFOCUS

Focus on Pakistan
Country continues to be one of the world’s biggest rice exporters and is among the leaders in wheat consumption
by Chris Lyddon

Key Facts
Capital: Islamabad Population: 190,291,129 (July 2012 est.) Religions: Muslim (official) 95%, (Sunni 75%, Shia 20%), other (includes Christian and Hindu) 5%. Location: Southern Asia, bordering the Arabian Sea, between India on the east and Iran and Afghanistan on the west and China in the north Government: Federal republic. Chief of state: President Asif Ali Zardari (since Sept. 9, 2008); head of government: Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani (since March 25, 2008). Economy: Decades of internal political disputes and low levels of foreign investment have led to slow growth and underdevelopment in Pakistan. Agriculture accounts for more than one-fifth of output and two-fifths of employment. Textiles account for most of Pakistan’s export earnings, and Pakistan’s failure to expand a viable export base for other manufactures has left the country vulnerable to shifts in world demand. Official unemployment is 6%, but this fails to capture the true picture, because much of the economy is informal and underemployment remains high. Over the past few years, low growth and high inflation, led by a spurt in food prices, have increased the amount of poverty. The UN Human Development Report estimated poverty in 2011 at almost 50% of the population. Inflation has worsened the situation, climbing from 7.7% in 2007 to more than 13% for 2011, before declining to 9.3% at year end. As a result of political and economic instability, the Pakistani rupee has depreciated more than 40% since 2007. The government agreed to an International Monetary Fund Standby Arrangement in November 2008 in response to a balance of payments crisis. Although the economy has stabilized since the crisis, it has failed to recover. Foreign investment has not returned, due to investor concerns related to governance, energy, security, and a slowdown in the global economy. Remittances from overseas workers, averaging about $1 billion a month since March 2011, remain a bright spot for Pakistan. However, after a small current account surplus in fiscal year 2011 (July 2010-June 2011), Pakistan’s current account turned to deficit in the second half of 2011, spurred by higher prices for imported oil and lower prices for exported cotton. Pakistan remains stuck in a low-income, lowgrowth trap, with growth averaging 2.9% per year from 2008 to 2011. Pakistan must address long standing issues related to government revenues and energy production in order to spur the amount of economic growth that will be necessary to employ its growing population. Other long-term challenges include expanding investment in education and healthcare, and reducing dependence on foreign donors. GDP per capita: $2,800 (2011 est.); inflation: 13.7% (2011 est.); unemployment 5.6% (2011 est.). Currency: Pakistani rupees (PKR); 90.8 rupees equal 1 U.S. dollar (April 19, 2012). Exports: $25.35 billion (2011 est.): textiles (garments, bed linen, cotton cloth, yarn), rice, leather goods, sports goods, chemicals, manufactures, carpets and rugs. Imports: $35.82 billion (2011 est.): petroleum, petroleum products, machinery, plastics, transportation equipment, edible oils, paper and paperboard, iron and steel, tea. Major crops/agricultural products: Cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables; milk, beef, mutton, eggs. Agriculture: 20.9% of GDP and 45% of the labor force. Internet: Code: .pk; 340,834 (2011) hosts and 20.431 million (2009) users.
Source: CIA World Factbook

IRAN

Pakistan is one of the world’s most important exporters of rice, making the crop vital to its economy, but the staple at home is wheat. Water, whether it’s too much in the form of ﬂoods or shortages when it’s needed for irrigation, is a major issue. The International Grains Council (IGC) put Pakistan’s total grain production for 2011-12 at 28.2 million tonnes, up from 27.8 million the year before. Its wheat crop is estimated at 24 million tonnes, up from 23.9 million. The sorghum crop is put at 200,000 tonnes, up from 100,000 tonnes. The Council predicts a fall in the wheat crop for 2012-13. “Seasonally warm weather and light precipitation beneﬁted the crop in Pakistan, where output is projected at 23.5 million tonnes,” it said. Total grain imports in 2011-12 are put at an unchanged 100,000 tonnes. Wheat exports are put at 1.2 million tonnes, down from 1.3 million. Rice production in 2011-12 is put at 7.2 million tonnes, up from 4.8 million, a low ﬁgure which was affected by ﬂoods, while rice exports are put at 3.7 million tonnes, up from TAJIKISTAN 2.8 million, enough to make Pakistan one of the world’s leading rice exporters. AFGHANISTAN The USDA’s attaché, also predicting a fall in wheat output in 2012-13, noted a declining trend in area, down by 5% in two years. PAKISTAN “Government reluctance to raise the procureINDIA ment price in accordance with the increase in input prices and recent trend of early sowing of cotton (February-March) are the main reasons for the reduction in the planted area for wheat,” it said. h t” “Last year, the Government of Pakistan procured 6.4 million tonnes of wheat from the local production but has yet to announce a procurement target for this year’s harvest,” the attaché’s annual report, published at the end of March, said. “Trade sources estimate that Pakistan exported 1.5 million tonnes in MY 2010-11 and around 800,000 tonnes in MY 2011-12.” The attaché said that wheat exports in 2012-13 are forecast

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