World Grain - September 2012 - 104

FEATURE

on the way?
S
erious problems in world grain production began in 2010 when Russia fell into one of the most severe droughts and heat waves seen in recorded history. Since then, two years of La Niña removed moisture from the atmosphere inducing short-term droughts in at least a portion of every major grain producing region in the world at one time or another. The recent U.S. drought has climaxed the past three years of moisture stress, leaving the world’s grain supply under immense pressure. The seasons are changing, and with that the world grain situation might trend a little brighter over the next few months as some improving weather occurs in many areas around the world. However, there will still be some dryness issues with lingering drought in the U.S., and developing dryness in both Australia and South Africa. South America weather will show improvement from last year, however. The past three years have tested the world’s grain supply and the free market system like no other period since early in the 20th century. Short grain supplies and critical moisture issues have dominated the headlines. In addition to the U.S.’s near record drought, dryness has occurred in the past few months in southeastern Europe, Ukraine, south-central Russia, a part of China (last spring and early summer), India, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and southeastern Canada. The world is still being fed, but concern about the system’s ability to continue feeding the population is rising. Weather conditions must improve and the sooner it changes, the better off the future will be for many areas in the world. With the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer season now here, there is opportunity for seasonal weather pattern changes to take place that might set the stage for improving
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by Drew Lerner

More moisture is expected in some areas of the world stricken by drought
grain production for 2012-2013. Today’s driest areas in the Northern Hemisphere remain in the United States, southeastern Europe, Ukraine and south-central Russia. Each of these regions of dryness will have a good opportunity for change this autumn and winter. Greater rainfall is expected across the European Continent, including western Asia. The situation in Ukraine, Russia’s Lower Volga River Basin, and southeastern Europe will improve in the next few weeks. Seasonal cooling will likely bring the jet stream back to the south, and as it shifts, rain will begin falling more frequently in the lower latitudes while continuing with a lighter bias in northern crop areas. This should bring some needed improvements in planting moisture for winter grains and oilseeds from France through Poland and Czech Republic to Ukraine and south-central Russia. A complete restoration to normal soil moisture will not happen right away, but gradual improvement is likely to evolve right after the season’s ﬁrst frost and freezes take place. Relief to dryness in Europe and parts of Russia will end three years of challenging conditions. Soil moisture is expected to be adequate by late September to support planting, emergence and establishment, although subsoil moisture and the long-term water supply will still be below average. The same kind of situation may evolve in the U.S., although the
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World Grain - September 2012

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