World Grain - January 2014 - 78

FEATURE

Five-year
supply/demand
projections
T

he International Grains Council (IGC) in its "Five-Year
Global Supply and Demand Projections" issued Dec.
10 forecast world wheat production to "edge higher" in
each of the next ﬁve years through 2018-19. World wheat consumption during the ﬁve-year outlook period was expected to
closely track production with the result that world wheat ending stocks should be stable. World trade in wheat was forecast
to dip in 2014-15 from the current year, but world trade then
was forecast to increase steadily at a modest pace through the
end of 2018-19.
The IGC publication contained a preliminary forecast for
world wheat production in 2014-15 as well as production projections for each subsequent year through 2018-19.
The IGC forecast 2014-15 world wheat production at a record 699 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from its forecast for the current year at 696 million tonnes (it should be
noted the IGC raised its forecast for 2013-14 production to
698 million tonnes in its latest Grain Market Report issued at
the end of November) and compared with 655 million tonnes
in 2012-13.
"Generally favorable autumn planting conditions and a
weak outlook for the global corn market helped boost sowings
for 2014-15 crops in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly
in the United States and the European Union," the IGC said
in commentary accompanying its supply-and-demand projections. "Overall, the global wheat area is forecast up 1.2% year
over year, including a 7% recovery in the United States, following an above average abandonment rate the previous year.
Tight supplies and high local prices are forecast to lift planted
area in Argentina, but harvested area in Canada may recede
from the high level of the preceding year."
78

by Jay Sjerven

International Grains Council outlook
sees world wheat production edging
higher over next five years
The IGC forecast world wheat production to increase on average 1.3% a year from 2014-15 through 2018-19 with the outturn in that latter year projected at 737 million tonnes.
The production forecasts were based on a narrow increase
in area planted to wheat each year and an average yield that
was expected to hold nearly ﬂat for most of the outlook period
at 3.2 tonnes per hectare.
World wheat area in 2014-15 was forecast at 223 million
hectares, up 2 million hectares from the estimate for the current year. Wheat area was forecast to expand on average 0.5%
per year through the ﬁve-year outlook and reach 228 million
hectares in 2018-19.
The IGC noted expansion in wheat area was constrained by
competition for available land from other crops, notably corn
and soybeans.
"Any increase in wheat sowing will likely be concentrated
in the Black Sea region, encouraged by good export prospects," the IGC said.
WHEAT CONSUMPTION TO ALSO RISE
World wheat consumption in the next ﬁve years was forecast to rise steadily, on average 1.4% per year, from a foreJanuary 2014 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - January 2014

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