World Grain - September 2014 - 106

WORLD GRAIN WEATHER REPORT

Bumper crops
expected

eather patterns during the Northern Hemisphere summer season this year were broadly tame relative to the
highly volatile years from 2005 through 2012. The
trend seems to be moving away from those volatile years and
more toward the kind of crop growing weather that producers
and traders came to know in 1990s and early 2000s. Production
from around the world this year is anticipated to be favorable
and many grain and oilseed bins will be running full.
Talk about increased plantings in South America has sent a
chill up the spines of some agricultural traders and producers
because a big increase in production might just result in a notable surplus of grain and oilseed stocks ending any perceived
hope that prices will once again rise with meaning. The situation might be great for food companies looking for a significant year of relief after recent high prices, but not everyone
will benefit the same. Producers could be faced with a significant decline in income during the balance of 2014 and 2015 if
the production glut continues.
Weather conditions have not been as adverse as they have
been in the past. U.S. crop yields are huge and despite the
futures markets trying desperately to find a problem with production this year, there has been very little. Many weather
forecasters still got it wrong in the spring of 2014 that El Niño
was coming and that it was going to be a "super El Niño"
event with calamitous weather in many areas. There was very
little calamity and as of today we still do not have an official
El Niño. So where do we go from here?
South America is not going to provide much respite from falling futures prices. In fact, the talk from Brazil is that more new
land will be brought into production this year and the nation
will continue to produce two corn crops with increased canola
production and a boost in second season soybean production.
All of this conversation is occurring while world weather is taking a break from the volatility of recent years and raising the
potential for good yields in Brazil and fair to good production
in Argentina as well.
World Weather, Inc. anticipates a good start to the growing season in Brazil and Argentina. Planting will begin soon
starting with an early corn crop in Brazil and following it with
early soybean planting in late September. Weather conditions
in September are poised to generate a well-timed rainfall
106

by Drew Lerner

Large soybean and corn
output expected in South America
as favorable weather
conditions anticipated
pattern that will begin soon and continue with great rhythm
through the month and into early October. The rain will serve
an ideal purpose in bolstering topsoil moisture from eastern
and southern Argentina through southern and eastern Brazil
and allowing for planting progress to occur quite favorably.
EL NIÑO FACTOR
Some reduction in rain frequency and intensity may occur
in October and November, but there is no blocking ridge of
high pressure advertised that would take the fine start to the
rainy season and turn it into a more threatening environment.
Even though El Niño has not been a significant feature in
recent weeks, changes in ocean temperatures in the tropical
eastern Pacific Ocean are suggesting a resumption in El Niño
development later in September. The El Niño event will then
prevail through the last quarter of 2014.
The return of developing El Niño conditions will only reinforce the favorable outlook for Brazil crop areas. Rain that will
be most significant in southern and eastern parts of crop country September through November will likely become heavy
in the December through February period with abundant and
well-timed rainfall occurring to support all of Brazil's huge
corn and soybean crops that are being advertised for this year.
El Niño will only see to it that yields are high. There may be
a short-term period of excessive moisture that may threaten
crops, but no serious problem is expected that would greatly
reduce the large volume of grain, oilseeds, sugar and other
commodities that will be derived from the favorable environment and increased planted area.
Argentina weather may not be quite as ideal as that in Brazil,
September 2014 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - September 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - September 2014