World Grain - October 2014 - 96

FEATURE

Upward pace maintained
in global flour exports

n its latest quarterly update of prospects for world ﬂour exports in 2014-15, the International Grains Council (IGC)
maintained its second annual increase. The Council placed
prospective ﬂour trade in the current crop year at 13,270,000
tonnes in wheat equivalent, up 120,000 from the initial forecast for 2014-15. At the indicated level, global ﬂour trade
would be up 6% from 12,560,000 shipped in 2013-14 and 9%
above the 12,180,000 tonnes exported in 2012-13. Even with
the two seasons of gains, ﬂour trade still fell short of the record volume of 14,560,000 tonnes shipped in 2011-12.
The IGC noted that expanded imports by Indonesia primarily accounted for the expanded volume. In addition, increased
2014-15 world flour trade - top exporters
(in 1,000 tonnes)

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Kazakhstan Turkey

E.U.

Argentina Pakistan

UAE

2014-15 world flour trade - top importers
(in 1,000 tonnes)

1,500
1,200
900
600
300
0
Uzbekistan Afghanistan Indonesia

Syria

All totals estimated in wheat equivalent. Source: International Grains Council

Brazil

by Morton I. Sosland

IGC forecasts trade to be up 6%
to 13,270,000 tonnes in wheat
equivalent
takings were noted by Iraq and a number of countries in subSaharan Africa.
Indonesia was forecast to import 800,000 tonnes of ﬂour in
wheat equivalent in 2014-15, contrasted with only 300,000 in the
year before. At the increased level, Indonesia was returning to the
time when it consistently ranked as a leader in ﬂour importing,
with takings in 2010-11 slightly above 1 million tonnes.
In May, the government of Indonesia switched from a 20%
tariff imposed on ﬂour imports to an annual quota system for
major exporting countries.
Rivaling the expected rise in Indonesia takings was the
import outlook for Brazil, placed at 700,000 tonnes of wheat
equivalent in 2014-15, against 250,000 in the prior season.
Brazil's ﬂour imports, mainly from Argentina, exceeded
900,000 tonnes just a few years ago. Limited Argentine wheat
supplies accounted for the Brazil ﬂour import fall in 2013-14.
The total of ﬂour imports by sub-Sahara Africa in 2014-15
was forecast at 2,110,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, against
2,080,000 in the previous season. Angola, taking 670,000
tonnes, was once again the region's largest ﬂour importer.
Kazakhstan regained its lead among ﬂour exporting nations in
2014-15, forecast to ship 3,200,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent,
up 14% from 2,800,000 in 2013-14 and 35% from 2,356,000
in 2012-13. In the latter two years, Turkey held the lead among
ﬂour shippers, but ranked second in 2014-15 at 2,700,000. Its
peak shipments were 3,353,000 tonnes in 2013-14.
A distant third in ﬂour exporting was the European Union, expected to ship 1,100,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent in 2014-15.
Argentina, at 900,000 tonnes likely in 2014-15, and the
United Arab Emirates and Pakistan at 600,000 each, were also
among the leading ﬂour shippers.
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