World Grain -- November 2015 - 94

WORLD GRAIN WEATHER REPORT

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE

ON THE UNITED STATES
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orld weather remains dominated by El Niño, but
forecasters are suggesting that the event has reached
its peak intensity and that opens the discussion for
what happens next. There is a good chance that as El Niño
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improved weather will impact many of the world's most important agricultural areas.
Today's most serious problems are in Indonesia where
drought has been at an extreme for several months and will
only slowly ease in the next few weeks as seasonal rainfall
attempts to evolve. The delayed arrival of season rainfall
culminates a normally "drier" season with critically low soil
moisture and water supply.
Drought in Indonesia is probably among the worst in the
world presently, but many other areas are drier than usual.
Portions of Northern Brazil, Central America, Central Africa,
Europe and Australia suffered from dryness during a large
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improvement or will soon see such conditions.
It is a little rare for improvement to come so soon during a
record or near-record intense El Niño, especially with it still
at its peak intensity. Most computer forecast model runs have
been suggesting El Niño will remain at its peak intensity for
several more weeks before showing a more accelerated deFOLQHLQLQWHQVLW\DQGLQÀXHQFHRQZRUOGZHDWKHUSDWWHUQV6R
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and when extremes of any kind occur there tends to be an
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weather. Years that are snow-free or receive well below average snow are often followed by greater snow years. The same
is true for dryness and extremely wet conditions. The record
books are full of examples of this and all that is needed in
most extreme weather situations is a little time for the balancing to take place.
The end of El Niño promises to counterbalance many of the
abnormalities noted this year. World Weather, Inc. is expectLQJ(XURSHWRVHHDFRROHUDQGZHWWHUVXPPHULQIRUUHD94

by Drew Lerner

With dryer conditions possible, U.S.
may hold 'trump card' for grain and
oilseed prices in 2016
sons other than to counterbalance this year's hot and dry bias.
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forecasts have been predicting more abundant rain in eastern
Australia in the next few weeks and some slowly improving
rainfall is now advertised for Indonesia and northern Brazil.
$VWLPHPRYHVDORQJDQG(O1LxRZHDNHQVPRUHVLJQL¿cantly, these trend changes will become much more noticeDEOH$TXLFNUHYLHZRISDVWVLJQL¿FDQW(O1LxRHYHQWVQHDUO\DOZD\VVKRZVDVLJQL¿FDQWUHWXUQRIUDLQWRVRXWKHUQ$VLD
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drier-biased areas that suffered production cuts will be wetter. Grain and oilseed crops, including rice, corn, soybeans
and some canola, will likely experience better environments
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coffee and cocoa production.
U.S. OFTEN TREND DRIER AFTER EL NIÑO
If these forecasts are all correct, one must conclude that
world production of many agricultural commodities will rise
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may be true, but interestingly there is enough support to beOLHYHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVPD\KROGD³WUXPSFDUG´IRUFRPPRGLW\IXWXUHVSULFHVLQ
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of the trading volume each year, although conditions are slowly changing in other places around the world. What happens in
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WUDGHDQGZLOOOLNHO\EHPRUHWKDWZD\WKDQXVXDOEHNovember 2015 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain -- November 2015

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