World Grain -- December 2015 - (Page 20)

GRAINMARKET REVIEW Oilseeds Bearish USDA report weighs on well supplied market Soybean prices (per tonne) 400 350 300 250 200 by Chris Lyddon 150 An increase in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) estimate for U.S. 2015-16 soybean production added to the overall picture of a well supplied oilseeds market and turned market sentiment in more of a bearish direction. "World soybean markets eased during November, with the IGC GOI sub-index falling by 3%," the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its Grain Market Report at the end of November. "Despite good underlying export demand, pressure stemmed from prospects for ample global supplies, with better than expected harvest results in the U.S. and improved planting conditions in South America." U.S. soybean futures posted losses of up to 3% over the month on a bearish supply outlook, highlighted by USDA's November WASDE report, which included upward revisions to forecasts for U.S. production and stocks, it said. "U.S. dollar strength pressured, as did talk that Chinese processors had secured new crop supplies from Brazil. However, losses were limited by supportive technical features, slow producer selling and ¿UPH[SRUWLQWHUHVWDV*XOIYDOXHVIHOOE\WRIRE,Q%UDzil, where plantings for the 2015-16 harvest are seen reaching a new SHDNH[SRUWTXRWDWLRQV 0DUFK GLSSHGE\WR ³,Q$UJHQWLQDVSRWSULFHVGHFOLQHGVOLJKWO\WRIREDVSUHVsure from weakness in the U.S. outweighed mild support from reluctant producer selling. ICE canola futures in Canada were narrowly mixed in November, with nearby contracts weighed by weakness in soybeans. However, losses were capped by slow farmer selling and strong local demand. MATIF (France's exchange) rapeseed futures were little changed, mildly underpinned by tight world supplies, FXUUHQF\PRYHPHQWVDQGFRQFHUQVDERXWFURSSURVSHFWVLQ Ukraine." The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for November forecast U.S. oilseed production for 2015-16 at PLOOLRQWRQQHVXSPLOOLRQIURPWKHSUHYLRXVHVWLPDWHRQ increased soybean production. It put U.S. soybean production in 2015-16 at 108.5 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 105.81 million, and a record level, on higher yields. The report forecast global oilseed production for 2015-16 at 531 million tonnes, down slightly from the previous month. ³/RZHU VXQÀRZHUVHHG DQG FRWWRQVHHG SURGXFWLRQ DFFRXQW IRU most of the change with nearly offsetting increases projected for soybeans and rapeseed," it said. It forecast global soybean production at 321 million tonnes, up 500,000, "with the larger U.S. crop only partly offset by reductions for India, South Africa, and Uruguay." ³7KH,QGLDVR\EHDQFURSLVUHGXFHGPLOOLRQWRQQHVWRPLOlion on lower projected yields," it said. "Inconsistent rainfall during the growing season and late-season heat results in below-average yields for the third consecutive year." 100 Oct 2015 Sep 2015 Aug 2015 Jul 2015 Jun 2015 May 2015 Apr 2015 Mar 2015 Feb 2015 Jan 2015 Dec 2014 Nov 2014 0 Oct 2014 20 50 Chicago Soybean futures contract (first contract forward) No. 2 yellow, U.S. dollars per tonne. Source: USDA *OREDOUDSHVHHGSURGXFWLRQLVUDLVHGWRPLOOLRQWRQQHV³,Qcreased production projected for Canada is only partly offset by reductions for Australia, Pakistan, and Russia," it said. The verdict of Rabobank on the WASDE report was, "bearish, as U.S. yield boost surprises even the most bearish in the market." In its Oil Crops Outlook, the USDA Economic Research Service noted that "USDA anticipates higher global imports of soybeans in 2015-16 with gains for China, the European Union (E.U.), Russia, and Thailand." "The largest increase was for China, where imports were forecast PLOOLRQWRQQHVKLJKHUWRPLOOLRQDQGXSIURPPLOOLRQIRU ´LWVDLG³0RUHJOREDOWUDGHIRUVR\EHDQVLVOLNHO\WREHQH¿W exports from Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. An expansion of shipments from those countries would more than offset an expected reduction of trade from Uruguay, due to a smaller crop there." Argentine soybean shipments this fall have been robust, it said. "Brightening prospects for Argentine exports for 2015-16 led to a forecast increase by 1 million tonnes to a six-year high of 10.8 million. This month, Brazil soybean exports for 2015-16 are forecast WRQQHVKLJKHUWRPLOOLRQ´LWVDLG³,Q2FWREHUROGFURS soybean shipments from Brazil were winding down but nevertheless set a record high for the month at 2.6 million tonnes. By February 2016, much larger shipments may resume upon the harvesting of an expected record high 2015-16 crop. "Rising soybean prices in Brazil have encouraged an unusually high amount of forward sales this year. Coupled with improved port logistics, that could prompt a faster increase of new-crop shipments. At the Port of Paranagua, the October completion of an expansion of ship loading capacity will shorten the time that vessels are berthed WKHUH7KHQHZHTXLSPHQWDOVRHQKDQFHVWKHSRUW¶VHI¿FLHQF\E\DFcommodating larger vessels." Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European correspondent. He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com. We want to hear from you - Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com. December 2015 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com http://www.World-Grain.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain -- December 2015

World Grain -- December 2015
Table of Contents
From the Editor-in-chief - Milling differs from Warren Buffett
Calendar of Events
Second Oilseed Congress scheduled for Feb. 9-10
News Review - Tiger pulls financial support from Dangote Flour Mills
European Parliament rejects national GMO bans
Olam 3Q operational earnings up
Wilmar’s oilseed, grain segment earnings surge
Ardent Mills stake to stay with ConAgra Brands
Noble Agri reports loss in quarter
The Andersons reports loss on Grain Group decline
IGP Institute names interim associate director
Cargill’s new South Korean feed mill is its largest in the world
ADM opens two plants in China
GSFMO privatizes its flour mills
GrainCorp 2015 earnings down
Tiger Brands year-end earnings offset by international operations
Cargill makes executive leadership changes
Glencore agricultural production up
Grain Market Review - Oilseeds
Country Focus - Spain
Feature - Going from margin to mainstream
Feature - Record Turnout in Dubai
Feature - IAOM takes show to Indonesia
Feature - Indonesia's milling giant may expand
Indonesia in numbers
Feature - An end to the bear market?
Feature - Big turnout expected for IPPE 2016
Feature - Shaping the global feed industry
Feed Operations - Bucket elevator selection and installation tips
Supplier News
Product Showcase
World Grain Archive
Ad Index/Reader Information Form International Faxback Program

World Grain -- December 2015

http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2020_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2019_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2018_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2018_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2017_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2016_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2015_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2015_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2014_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2013_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_03_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_02_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2012_01_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_12_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_11_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_10_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/20111_09_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_08_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_07_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_06_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_05_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_04_01
http://www.nxtbook.com/sosland/wg/2011_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2011_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2010_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2009_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2008_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
http://www.nxtbookMEDIA.com