World Grain - June 2016 - 56

FEATURE: SUB-SAHARAN TAKING IN MORE WHEAT

d'Ivoire. In addition, public tenders are less common in these
countries compared to the situation in other major wheatimporting countries in Africa like Egypt, and we expect that
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Rabobank said the Western African hubs are mainly supplied by European and U.S. players. The report said France, in
particular, has strong trade connections with West Africa due
to a shared colonial history, except for Nigeria, where U.S.
wheat has a strong market share.
Due to its geographic presence and assets in ports on the
Atlantic, French wheat exporters have an advantage over
competitors in the U.S. and Black Sea region, because freight
costs are lower, Rabobank said.
"For the next decades, we expect E.U. players, especially
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Rabobank said.
EAST AFRICA'S PRODUCTION PROBLEM
In contrast to West Africa, some East African countries
such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia provide possibilities to

Zambia fighting to maintain
surplus production status
A quiet agricultural success story that is taking place
on the Africa continent is occurring in Zambia, which,
according to Rabobank, has evolved from zero wheat
production in the early 1970s to a surplus production
status in 2011.
Rabobank noted that Zambia currently has one of the
highest self-sufficiency ratios within the African continent
(74%). Wheat production has risen to 338,000 tonnes
per year against the national consumption requirement of
310,000 tonnes per year.
However, shortfalls were recorded the last two
seasons because of unfavorable weather conditions,
increased consumption, to around 350,000 tonnes, due
to the rise in middle-income families, and an increase
in flour exports, which requires more wheat to grind,
Rabobank said.
Because of this, the government this year allowed
imports of 75,000 tonnes of wheat and removed a 15%
duty on non-Southern African Development Community
and Common Market for Eastern Southern Africa wheat
to help bridge the deficit.
"For next year, we expect wheat production to drop, as
some farms have reduced their wheat area planted due
to expectations of load shedding (electricity) and reduced
water levels, which are both expected to negatively impact irrigations systems," Rabobank said. "In addition,
Zambia is also facing a devaluation of its currency. Therefore, input costs such as fertilizer and seeds become more
expensive in the country own currency, triggering a switch
to other crops that require no irrigation systems."
56

product wheat locally as a result of favorable agroclimatic
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the current and future population of East Africa, so this region will also remain heavily dependent on wheat imports,
the report said.
With 385 million people, East Africa is slightly larger
than West Africa, which has a population of 347 million.

Currently, SSA wheat imports, at 21
million tonnes, lag behind those of
North Africa by around 5 million tonnes.
However, the gap is closing quickly. SSA
is expected import an additional 9 to 11
million tonnes of wheat per year in just
one decade from now.
However, per capita consumption of wheat in East Africa
(38 kilograms per year) is much higher than West Africa (22
kilograms per year), and therefore wheat imports of East
Africa (7 million tonnes) already surpassed those of West
Africa (6.8 million tonnes), the report said.
This is noteworthy, Rabobank said, because East Africa is
the second largest wheat-producing region on the continent
after North Africa, with an annual average production of 4.7
million tonnes.
"The countries (in East Africa) in which it is possible to
produce wheat are Ethiopia and Kenya, due to the presence of high latitudes with more suitable temperatures for
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and is expected to become a stronger net exporter of wheat
to neighboring countries. This is a result of both favorable
climatic conditions and government policies, but also due
to expectations on yield improvements and potential land
availability.
"Importing wheat at the coast and transporting it over
land to Zambia is very expensive, and, in addition, imports
are highly regulated by the government, which explains the
country's local production. Opportunities arise for local
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2QDYHUDJHRYHUWKHSDVW¿YH\HDUV(DVW$IULFDLPSRUWed 7 million tonnes of wheat annually. In contrast to West
Africa, East Africa has no preferred supplying countries,
but has various trading partners such as the E.U., the U.S.,
Argentina, Australia and Ukraine, the report said.
"Therefore, we expect that all large wheat-originating
FRXQWULHV FRXOG EHQH¿W IURP WKH JURZLQJ GHPDQG DQG RSportunities will arise for both global players as well as large
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World Grain - June 2016

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