World Grain - November 2016 - 96

FEATURE: GOOD HARVEST EXPECTED IN SOUTH AMERICA

early crop mature and harvested before
the truly wettest conditions arrive in
January and February.
Dryness is still a problem in Bahia,
northern and eastern Minas Gerais,
Espirito Santo and a few areas to the
north into a part of Tocantins and easternmost Mato Grosso. A multi-year
drought in northeastern Brazil is expected to be notably eased this summer.
Dryness has left water supply critically
low in parts of Bahia, northern Minas
Gerais and many other areas surrounding the region reported deplorable production last summer because of hot and
dry weather. That pattern will not be repeated even though soil moisture is still
critically low.
Seasonal rainfall in northeastern
Brazil does not usually begin until
November. Dryness in late October was
not much of an immediate concern and
it will disappear by mid-summer - at
least from a topsoil moisture perspective. It will take much longer to restore
the water supply after so many droughtstricken years.
Recent rainfall surpluses in far
southern Brazil, Paraguay and portions
of Argentina have soil and crop conditions mostly in good shape. However,
too much rain fell in Rio Grande do
Sul during the week ended Oct. 21,
with amounts varying from 6 to more
than 10 inches. Flooding resulted and
damage came to its wheat crop where
harvesting was only 15% complete at
the time. Rio Grande do Sul produces
36% of the nation's wheat crop and the
state was still too wet as the last week
of October began.

Tocantins
Bahia

Mato Grosso

Minas
Gerais

Bolivia
Mato Grosso
do Sul

Espirito Santo
Sao Paulo
Rio de Janeiro

Paraguay

Parana

Santa Catarina
Rio Grande do Sul
Average 7-day topsoil
moisture ended
Oct. 24,2016

World Weather, Inc.

Buenos Aires and in some far northern
Argentina locations. However, soybean
planting mostly occurs in November
into January, making the present wet
bias of little concern for that crop. Corn
and sunseed planting had been advancing relatively well before the rain came,
but it looks likely that drier weather in
early November will prove to be nearly
as well timed to bring an aggressive
planting pace to much of the nation.
Some recent concerns over winter
wheat conditions in Argentina should be
put to rest with the drier early November
weather that is expected.
Argentina's topsoil was saturated in
much of the nation when the last week
of October began and some new concern over winter wheat conditions in
FAVORABLE OUTLOOK IN ARGENTINA
that country began in response to the
Argentina, like southern Brazil, was wet bias. But the same drying to benreporting abundant rain in October with H¿WVXPPHUFURSSODQWLQJLQ1RYHPEHU
most of the nation going from a little also is expected to bring improvement
too dry at the beginning of the month to wheat and it should occur in time to
to a little too wet in the last week. The stave off a bigger problem in grain qualbig change has quite a few producers ity and production.
complaining suddenly that it is now
The summer outlook of wetter biased
WRRZHWIRU¿HOGZRUNDQGDGULHUELDVLV conditions in center west, northern parts
needed. Rainfall was mostly above av- of center south and some northeastern
erage in San Luis, La Pampa, western crop areas of Brazil will be accompanied
96

Extremely wet
Wet
Moist
Adequate
Marginal
Limited
Dry

by some cooler biased temperatures.
The only warmer-than-usual conditions may be in southeastern Argentina,
Uruguay and a few Rio Grande do Sul
locations in the heart of summer.
South America's outlook this summer is mostly favorable. However, the
brief period in January and February
when heavy rain falls in parts of
northern Brazil crop areas and a little dryness evolves in southeastern
Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and
southern Brazil will begin a shortterm period of crop concern. World
Weather, Inc. believes the weather
anomaly will pass with some concern,
but the bottom line will likely include
another favorable production year for
nearly all of South America.
Drew Lerner is a senior agricultural
meteorologist with World Weather, Inc. He may
be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com.
World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments
pertaining to present, past and future weather
conditions included in this report constitute the
corporation's judgment as of the date of this
report and are subject to change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of
WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

November 2016 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com

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World Grain - November 2016

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