World Grain - March 2017 - 105

FEATURE: MARKET WEATHER DOLDRUMS FOR TWO MORE MONTHS

El Niño. That dryness will begin in the
lower Delta and a part of the Tennessee
River Basin this spring with some
expansion northwest into the western
Corn Belt during the summer. If El Niño
evolves, the same dryness in the central
Gulf of Mexico Coastal States would
likely expand to the east and slightly to
the north resulting in a broader region of
dryness that would threaten much of the
southeastern states in July and August.
Obviously, the potential ENSO event
is setting up to be the single most
important part of the 2017 Northern
Hemisphere forecast. If the event
evolves, the United States and Russia
will do better and China may trend a
little dry along with portions of India
and the southeastern Asia countries.
Without the ENSO event, Russia
and the United States may see some
expanding dryness, but in both cases it
is not likely to become a critical event,

but just enough to shave off some yield.
If El Niño evolves and prevails into the
Southern Hemisphere summer of 201718, South America crops could produce
well, especially in Brazil ... again.
Australia might run into some trouble
with its winter grain and oilseed crops
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but that continues to be the problem.
World Weather, Inc. does not expect a
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we do see is expected to be too weak
of an event to have much pull on world
weather trends and market production.
The bottom line to this is obviously
no clear signal right now. However, with
WKDW VDLG FRQ¿GHQFH LV KLJK WKDW PRVW
anomalous weather trends advertised in
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best futures market interests can expect
for this year's weather is some serious
basing in market prices with some
upward movement in futures' prices

in response to weather change and the
potential for volatility and threats to
production later in 2017 and 2018.
The weather doldrums are destined to
prevail for a few more weeks, but then
the speculators will emerge and the
VSDUNVZLOOEHJLQÀ\LQJDJDLQ:KHWKHU
or not a blazing market run can emerge
based on true weather problems is not
known. But when the bottom line rolls
around for 2017, world production will
be a little less abundant than 2016.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist
with World Weather, Inc. He may be reached at
worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World Weather, Inc.
forecasts and comments pertaining to present,
past and future weather conditions included in
this report constitute the corporation's judgment
as of the date of this report and are subject to
change without notice.
We want to hear from you - Send comments and
inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.com. For reprints of
WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

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105
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World Grain - March 2017

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