World Grain - March 2017 - 26

COUNTRY FOCUS

(in 1,000 tonnes)

8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2016-17*

2015-16

2014-15

Production

Exports

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

26

Pakistan rice production, exports

2008-09

and 2.1% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in
2015."
The Pakistan government has decided to buy 6.95 million
tonnes of wheat from the next harvest against the target of
6.6 million tonnes in the previous year. The government has
maintained the wheat support price for the MY 2016-17 crop
at the last year's level of 1,300 rupees per 40 kilogram ($310
per tonne).
In an update issued in December, the attaché outlined the
latest thinking on the crop.
"The government of Pakistan has set the wheat production
target at a record 26 million tonnes for the 2016-17 Rabi (winter) crop that will be harvested in April and May of 2017," the
report said. "During the last marketing year the government
also set a target of 26 million tonnes, but drier-than-normal
weather and high temperatures resulted in lower yields and
2016 production of 25.3 million tonnes."
5HSRUWV IURP WKH ¿HOG VXJJHVWHG WKDW IDUPHUV KDYH FRPpleted the sowing of wheat across Pakistan, the report said.
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year ago," the USDA noted. "Good rains are predicted during
the January-February period, according to the meteorological
department. About 90% of the crop is irrigated and irrigation
water availability for the upcoming Rabi season is estimated
at 30.9 million acre feet (MAF) against the 10-year average
of 36.4 MAF and the year-ago availability of 32.9 MAF. This
reduction in reservoir levels is not large enough to have a sigQL¿FDQWHIIHFWRQSODQWHGDUHDRU\LHOGV´
Pakistan's grain production is dependent on irrigation.
"About two-thirds of the country's water for irrigation is
sourced from snow and glacier melts, with the balance supplied by seasonal monsoon rains," the attaché's annual report
explained. "Stored water for irrigation is held mainly in two
large reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, for use during the summer and during the Rabi/winter growing season.
"Since the completion of the nation's irrigation system in
the 1970s, demand for water has increased by more than 50%,
while storage capacity has decreased by about one-third due
to silting. During the last two years, supplies of irrigation water have been relatively better, but over the long term Pakistan
is likely to face water-related challenges."
These water challenges, if not addressed, may become a key
factor affecting wheat production, the attaché said.
"Dated farming methods, reduced water availability, dam
silting, and an increasing population in the catchment areas of
Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers have reduced the per capita
water availability from 5,000 cubic meters in 1951 to less
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percent of Pakistan's wheat production is dependent upon irrigated water."
The annual report explained that wheat is Pakistan's dietary
staple.
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*Projected

* Projected
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

pared in a traditional clay oven called a tandoor," the report
said. "The tandoori style of cooking is common throughout
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72% of Pakistan's daily caloric intake with per capita wheat
consumption of around 124 kg per year, one of the highest in
the world."
Diets are changing in Pakistan, the report said.
"As incomes increase and a stronger middle class emerges,
consumers are gradually shifting towards more dairy, meat,
and other higher-value food products in their diet," the report
said. "Over the long term, this shift to a more balanced diet
has the potential to limit the pace of growth in wheat consumption."
The attaché forecast 2016-17 wheat demand at 24.5 million
tonnes and explained that just 3% would be used for food,
with 97% going for planning and human consumption.
MILLING SECTOR
Pakistan's wheat milling industry is privately owned, the
attaché explained.
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consumption needs of about 40% of the population, with the
balance met by on-farm consumption," the attaché said. "The
GLVEXUVHPHQW RI JRYHUQPHQWRZQHG ZKHDW WR ÀRXU PLOOV LV
PDQDJHGLQDQHIIRUWWRHQVXUHWKDWVXI¿FLHQWZKHDWLVDYDLODEOH WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU ,Q XUEDQ DUHDV DQG DPRQJ DIÀXent consumers, consumer preference is shifting from higher
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products like cereals suited to the changing lifestyles in the
urban areas are also gaining demand."
The attaché put 2015-16 wheat exports at 600,000 tonnes,
March 2017 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2017

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