World Grain - December 2017 - 64

FEATURE

WAITING on a supply shock
T

he world's demand for food is rising to levels never seen
before, yet the grain-producing and processing sector is
doing a great job keeping it supplied. Delegates at the
Global Grain 2017 Conference, held in November in Geneva,
Switzerland, heard about this positive picture but also some
factors that could threaten it.
Emily French, managing director of Consiliagra, discussed the
challenges that face the food sector. Food markets are going to be
affected by the improved living standards of people surging into
urban centers. The "21st century food wars" over calories, food
safety fats, aging, disease and bioterror will continue. She said
Asia is the epicenter of this trend, noting that all the people of
North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand combined account for less than 10% of the world's food consumers.
"Is this the calm before the storm or rather are we in the eye
of the storm?" she asked. "Will agriculture be allowed to feed
9 billion people? The technology exists, but it is being withheld. The less we spend on food the more time we spend complaining about it. I personally believe it will take a weather
event. At some point in time we will have a supply shock."
After weather, there is another great threat to the industry.
"The funds, or managed money, is holding at or near-record
positions in grain," she said. "Does money start shifting back
into commodities?"
She started with wheat.
Emily French, managing director, Consiliagra, discusses the challenges
facing the food sector at the 2017 Global Grains Conference in Geneva,
Switzerland. Photos by Chris Lyddon.
64

by Chris Lyddon

Global Grains Conference speakers
discuss potential threats to a grain
market that is currently oversupplied
"The consumption story is not nearly as sexy as what we see
in corn," she said. "Consumption is forecast to rise about 1%
in the year." It has risen by 20% in the last decade.
"Feed wheat and the feed wheat segment of demand will need
to take on a bigger role for demand growth," she said. "There
is an argument that wheat is non-biotech. On June 1, 2018, if
the world did not produce any more wheat, we would have
120 days of wheat on hand. You'll draw down that production
spread quite quickly. Wheat has the largest supply cushion."
However, the picture changes if you take out India and
China, which hold around 51% of world wheat stocks.
"That wheat will likely not see the light of day," she said.
"When they come into the market it will be on the import
side."
Take out India and China and the supply cushion goes down
to 90.5 days.
"Wheat is starting to become much more interesting to me,"
she said.
She turned her attention to the Black Sea.
"Its percentage of worldly production actually has been on
December 2017 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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World Grain - December 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - December 2017

World Grain - December 2017
Contents
FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF - Automation’s past success in milling
VICTAM Asia dedicated to animal feed, grain processing, pet food and more
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
News review - Cargill inks deal to acquire Brazilian feed producer
Challenging operating environment weighs on ADM earnings
Grain Alliance to build flour mill in Ukraine
U.S. DDGS shipments accepted in Vietnam since ban lifted
Large grain harvest, malt performance boosts GrainCorp earnings
Wilmar to buy edible oil facility from Cargill
U.S. ag exports soar to third-highest level on record
OSHA proposes $1.8 million fine against Didion Milling
Pipeline Foods breaks ground on North Dakota grain terminal
Olam profit soars on sales surge
Nitto Fuji Flour Milling makes takeover bid for Masuda Flour Milling
CHS fiscal 2017 income down on charges
Increased crush margins in oilseeds, grains buoys Wilmar earnings
German firm acquires Cargill feed business in Switzerland
Scoular Wellington, Kansas facility damaged by fire
President of National Association of Wheat Growers resigns
The Andersons earnings up despite difficult market conditions
T S Flour Mill profit climbs 88% in third quarter
GRAIN MARKET REVIEW - Oilseeds
COUNTRY FOCUS - France
TECHNICAL PROFILE - ORGANIC BAKED GOODS a megatrend in France
Retailers expanding organic baked goods lines
FEATURE - RIEPER FINDS NICHE IN FLOUR, FEED AND BAKING
FEED QUARTERLY - IPPE ADDS TO EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS
FEED OPERATIONS - Compressed air systems
FEED QUARTERLY - 'IT'S ABOUT TIME'
FEED QUARTERLY - CHINA'S CHANGING FEED INDUSTRY
FEATURE - IAOM MEA DRAWS RECORD NUMBER OF DELEGATES
FEATURE - WAITING on a supply shock
FEATURE - ORGANIC INDUSTRY FACES INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES
FEATURE - PROTECTING stored products from pests
SUPPLIER NEWS
PRODUCT SHOWCASE
WORLD GRAIN ARCHIVE
ADVERTISER INDEX/Reader Information Form International Faxback Program
World Grain - December 2017 - World Grain - December 2017
World Grain - December 2017 - World Grain - December 2017
World Grain - December 2017 - 2
World Grain - December 2017 - 3
World Grain - December 2017 - 4
World Grain - December 2017 - Contents
World Grain - December 2017 - FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF - Automation’s past success in milling
World Grain - December 2017 - 7
World Grain - December 2017 - CALENDAR OF EVENTS
World Grain - December 2017 - 9
World Grain - December 2017 - Challenging operating environment weighs on ADM earnings
World Grain - December 2017 - 11
World Grain - December 2017 - U.S. DDGS shipments accepted in Vietnam since ban lifted
World Grain - December 2017 - Large grain harvest, malt performance boosts GrainCorp earnings
World Grain - December 2017 - U.S. ag exports soar to third-highest level on record
World Grain - December 2017 - OSHA proposes $1.8 million fine against Didion Milling
World Grain - December 2017 - Nitto Fuji Flour Milling makes takeover bid for Masuda Flour Milling
World Grain - December 2017 - CHS fiscal 2017 income down on charges
World Grain - December 2017 - President of National Association of Wheat Growers resigns
World Grain - December 2017 - T S Flour Mill profit climbs 88% in third quarter
World Grain - December 2017 - GRAIN MARKET REVIEW - Oilseeds
World Grain - December 2017 - 21
World Grain - December 2017 - COUNTRY FOCUS - France
World Grain - December 2017 - 23
World Grain - December 2017 - 24
World Grain - December 2017 - 25
World Grain - December 2017 - TECHNICAL PROFILE - ORGANIC BAKED GOODS a megatrend in France
World Grain - December 2017 - 27
World Grain - December 2017 - Retailers expanding organic baked goods lines
World Grain - December 2017 - 29
World Grain - December 2017 - FEATURE - RIEPER FINDS NICHE IN FLOUR, FEED AND BAKING
World Grain - December 2017 - 31
World Grain - December 2017 - 32
World Grain - December 2017 - 33
World Grain - December 2017 - FEED QUARTERLY - IPPE ADDS TO EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS
World Grain - December 2017 - 35
World Grain - December 2017 - 36
World Grain - December 2017 - 37
World Grain - December 2017 - 38
World Grain - December 2017 - 39
World Grain - December 2017 - FEED OPERATIONS - Compressed air systems
World Grain - December 2017 - 41
World Grain - December 2017 - 42
World Grain - December 2017 - 43
World Grain - December 2017 - 44
World Grain - December 2017 - 45
World Grain - December 2017 - FEED QUARTERLY - 'IT'S ABOUT TIME'
World Grain - December 2017 - 47
World Grain - December 2017 - 48
World Grain - December 2017 - 49
World Grain - December 2017 - FEED QUARTERLY - CHINA'S CHANGING FEED INDUSTRY
World Grain - December 2017 - 51
World Grain - December 2017 - 52
World Grain - December 2017 - 53
World Grain - December 2017 - 54
World Grain - December 2017 - 55
World Grain - December 2017 - 56
World Grain - December 2017 - 57
World Grain - December 2017 - FEATURE - IAOM MEA DRAWS RECORD NUMBER OF DELEGATES
World Grain - December 2017 - 59
World Grain - December 2017 - 60
World Grain - December 2017 - 61
World Grain - December 2017 - 62
World Grain - December 2017 - 63
World Grain - December 2017 - FEATURE - WAITING on a supply shock
World Grain - December 2017 - 65
World Grain - December 2017 - 66
World Grain - December 2017 - 67
World Grain - December 2017 - 68
World Grain - December 2017 - 69
World Grain - December 2017 - FEATURE - ORGANIC INDUSTRY FACES INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES
World Grain - December 2017 - 71
World Grain - December 2017 - 72
World Grain - December 2017 - 73
World Grain - December 2017 - 74
World Grain - December 2017 - 75
World Grain - December 2017 - FEATURE - PROTECTING stored products from pests
World Grain - December 2017 - 77
World Grain - December 2017 - 78
World Grain - December 2017 - 79
World Grain - December 2017 - SUPPLIER NEWS
World Grain - December 2017 - 81
World Grain - December 2017 - 82
World Grain - December 2017 - 83
World Grain - December 2017 - 84
World Grain - December 2017 - 85
World Grain - December 2017 - PRODUCT SHOWCASE
World Grain - December 2017 - 87
World Grain - December 2017 - 88
World Grain - December 2017 - WORLD GRAIN ARCHIVE
World Grain - December 2017 - ADVERTISER INDEX/Reader Information Form International Faxback Program
World Grain - December 2017 - 91
World Grain - December 2017 - 92
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com