POWER April 2012 - 18

ernment approval in consultation with the grid operator. New
technical standards have also been imposed to facilitate grid
integration of wind turbines.
The U.S. wind sector's long-term development, meanwhile,
hangs in the balance for lack of agreement on continuation of
the current incentive system, which consists of a production tax
credit of 2.2¢ per kWh for wind generation, the study notes.
Globally during 2011, offshore wind power fared the worst,
EurObserv'ER says. Only 788.1 MW were installed, compared to
1,139 MW in 2010. " The decline recorded in 2011 however, will
not drive the off-shore sector's future development off course, "
it forecasts, saying 18 projects under construction should be
completed over the next three years and raise the EU's offshore
capacity to more than 9 GW. " The sector's growth is set to accelerate
from then on, " it concludes, citing claims that 40 GW of
offshore capacity should be installed by 2020, which will cover
4% of the EU's electricity demand.
India's Chronic Coal Shortages Threaten
Coal Power Ambitions
India has been besieged by a coal shortage of unprecedented severity
that has forced privately owned and money-strapped state-owned
coal-fired power plants alike to rely on expensive imports from Indonesia
and South Africa to replenish woefully inadequate stocks.
The situation, which intensified last October, was said to stem
from heavy rainfall in August and September in key mining areas
that affected six of seven subsidiaries belonging to Coal India,
the central government-controlled mining company, and caused
a shortfall of 17 million metric tons of coal. The scarcity-already
severe for the nation, which sources 55% of its power from coal
generation-was further exacerbated by strikes by Coal India employees,
a derailment of a big consignment of coal, and floods
in eastern states.
The fuel shortages have frozen plans for $36 billion of new
power plants and stunted India's $1.7 trillion economy. In late
February, India's Power Ministry told the Planning Commission
that the nation's coal availability during the 12th Plan period
(2012-2017) was suggestive of a " very bleak " scenario and that
the shortages raised questions about achieving the targeted 9%
economic growth for the period.
7. Dealing with the dearth. India has been stricken by a severe
coal shortage that has forced state-run generators and private companies
to import coal-circumstances that could compel the country to
scale down its new coal capacity targets. Despite being built to overcome
chronic power shortages that are stunting economic growth,
newly opened plants like Tata's 1,050-MW Maithon Right Bank Thermal
Power Plant in Jharkhand aren't receiving enough coal to reach full
capacity. Courtesy: Tata Power
Coal India production over the period was projected at 615
million metric tons-way below the 12th plan requirement
of 842 million metric tons, the ministry said. That much coal
would only support about 19,000 MW of Coal India-linked
new capacity during the five-year period, half as much as the
38,000 MW required to sustain economic growth. For those
reasons, the ministry urged the commission to pare down its
total generation capacity targets for the period from 76,000
MW to 57,000 MW. India's total capacity addition ambitions
of 76,000 MW during the 12th Plan consisted of 62,695-MW
coal capacity, 2,800 MW of nuclear power, 9,200 MW of hydropower,
and 1,086 of gas-fired power.
And it's just the beginning of a downward spiral, some
experts suggest, saying that the deficit between the demand
and supply of domestic coal in India may rise as high as 150
million metric tons by 2014 if the country fails to increase
local supplies by at least 6% this year.
State-run power generation companies from Maharashtra,
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu-entities that
rely on Coal India for adequate supply-have already begun
depending on expensive imports, while private generators
such as Tata Power (Figure 7) and Adani Power have substantially
increased coal imports, reported India's Financial
Chronicle in late February.
But some analysts assert that India's plan was doomed from
the start. Even with the shortages from last summer, Coal India
reported only a 2.7% drop in production to 291.2 million
metric tons in the nine months leading up to Dec. 31, according
to a Feb. 13 statement. Meanwhile, a recent report by
Standard Chartered Bank suggests that even if India received
60% of the coal it needs from its own mines, it would still
need 106 million metric tons of coal capacity within the next
five years-double Australia's planned expansion and twothirds
of Indonesia's. That is one reason Indian companies
are scrambling to secure coal resources, buying coal projects
in Indonesia, Australia, and Mozambique, it said. Moreover, if
a 10% growth in generation capacity were assumed, imports
would have to grow by a stunning 125% to 164 million metric
tons by 2015-a development that could ultimately cause
coal prices to surge beyond $200/metric ton.
Meanwhile, India must compete with coal-hungry developing
nations like China for fuel. India is already poised to
surpass China as the world's biggest thermal coal importer,
according to The Financial Express, which reported that India's
imports could exceed 118 million metric tons this
year-substantially more than last year's 81.1 million metric
ton imports of steam coal, and much higher than China's imports
of 102 million metric tons this year. One reason for this,
experts note, is that China is developing twice as much coalproduction
capacity this year as in 2011. At the same time,
India's government may force Coal India to begin imports en
masse by imposing penalties on power producers should deliveries
fall to less than 80% of the contracted quantity.
POWER Digest
CSP Giants Form Alliance. Concentrating solar power companies
Abengoa, BrightSource Energy, and Torresol Energy
in early March formed the Concentrating Solar Power Alliance,
an organization dedicated to educating U.S. regulators,
utilities, and grid operators about the unique benefits of
concentrating solar power (CSP) and of thermal energy storage.
The U.S. has more than 500 MW of operating CSP plants
18
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POWER April 2012

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