POWER April 2017 - 6

SPEAKING OF POWER
Whether Man-Made or Not,
Global Warming Is a Problem
I
recently bought a house in southwestern
Florida, but not without some reservations.
Don't get me wrong, I love the
palm trees and sandy beaches, but what
worries me is the area's sea-level trend, as
reported by the U.S. National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
You see, in the area where I purchased,
NOAA says sea level is rising 2.85 millimeters
per year. It doesn't sound like
much, but my home is 11.9 feet above
mean sea level, according to the National
Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929. If the
current
trend continues,
the property
I purchased will be below sea level in
about 100 years. Although I don't plan
to live that long, my house doesn't need
to be under water for it to be worthless;
extreme weather and storm surges
could devastate the place long before the
ocean engulfs it.
Global Warming Is Not a Partisan
Issue
We could debate whether humans are to
blame for climate change, but that is not
the point of this column. Although it does
matter why the Earth is warming, and
more should be done to put the question
to rest, the first step has to be acknowledging
that we have a problem.
A person need not be an environmental
extremist to observe that the Earth's
average temperature is increasing. As Ken
Maize notes in his article, " U.S. Nuclear:
From Hope to Despair, " which begins on
page 59 of this issue, several well-respected
GOP statesmen believe, " Mounting evidence
of climate change is growing too
strong to ignore. "
New Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
seems to also be a believer. During his
confirmation hearing, Tillerson, the former
CEO of ExxonMobil (a company with
more than a little at stake in the debate),
said, " I came to my personal position over
about 20 years as an engineer and a scientist-understanding
the evolution of the
science-came to the conclusion a few
years ago that the risk of climate change
does exist and that the consequences of
6
it could be serious enough that action
should be taken. "
Data Implies Trouble
There is a lot of evidence suggesting that
climate change is real. Independent analysis,
conducted by both NASA and NOAA,
showed that the Earth's 2016 surface temperatures
were the warmest logged since
modern recordkeeping began in 1880. Last
year was the third year in a row to set a
new record for global average surface temperatures,
and 16 of the 17 warmest years
on record have occurred since 2001, according
to NASA.
In mid-February, NOAA reported that
sea ice extent on both poles was the
smallest ever recorded in January. Arctic
sea ice was 8.6% below the 1981-2010
average and Antarctic sea ice was a whopping
22.8% below average. If that's not
enough, on March 1 Reuters reported that
a new heat record was recently set near
the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula-it
hit 63.5F there, according to the
World Meteorological Organization.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates
that nearly 90% of the Earth's ice mass
is in Antarctica. If even 10% of that ice
melted, sea level would rise 20 feet. Obviously,
such an increase would result in
chaos around the world, because hundreds
of millions of people live in low-lying
coastal regions. According to NOAA, 39%
of the U.S. population lives in counties
that border the ocean.
Failing to Plan Is Planning to Fail
For the power industry, the question of
what to do with this information is a good
one. At the very least, companies need to
consider options for hardening assets and
preparing for weather changes. A variety
of questions could be asked to which the
answers may help power companies prepare
for the future.
For example, what effect will extreme
weather patterns have on plant operations?
Some experts predict that wild swings between
drought and flooding will occur more
frequently. (We've already seen glimpses of
www.powermag.com
that in California and other regions.) If
flooding strikes your area, how protected
is your facility? At what level would excess
water force you to shut down? Are the
flood estimates you're relying on outdated?
At the opposite end of the spectrum, will
you have enough water to operate? Do you
have a contingency plan?
Plants that rely on dry-cooling systems
may face scenarios that are nearly
as troubling. Ambient temperatures have
a drastic effect on heat rejection rates in
air-cooled condensers (ACCs). At least one
study suggests ACC performance decreases
nearly 21% when ambient temperature increases
from 71F to 82F. Turbine backpressure
increases with ambient temperatures,
resulting in a significant efficiency penalty.
One remedy, the use of water spray,
can help achieve performance goals, but
that goes counter to the reason why many
ACCs are utilized in the first place-lack
of water resources.
Heat is tough on workers too. Ambient
conditions inside power plants can
be quite extreme, even on typical summer
days. If temperatures increase in the future,
how will your workers cope with heat
stress?
Finally, a recently released paper, published
in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States
of America, suggests that climate change
will have " severe impacts on the frequency
and intensity of peak electricity demand
across the United States. " The study
found that significant investment in peak
generating capacity would be needed under
a business-as-usual scenario. Is your
company prepared to meet the demand if
hotter weather causes higher peaks or are
changes in strategy warranted?
As for me, I've got my backup plan. Even
though I purchased a house in Florida, I'm
not letting go of my Minnesota property
just yet. If temperatures continue to increase,
the Midwest could become the
next tropical paradise and I may be happy
I have a place to go back to. ■
-Aaron Larson is POWER's
executive editor.
POWER | April 2017
http://www.powermag.com
POWER April 2017

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