POWER February 2017 - 39

FUELS
Table 1. Top uranium-producing countries. Kazakhstan and Canada accounted
for more than 60% of all the world's mined uranium in 2015 (values shown are in tons). Of countries
not listed here, none produced more than 400 tons. Source: World Nuclear Association
Country
Australia
Canada
China (est)
Kazakhstan
Namibia
Niger
Russia
U.S.
Ukraine (est)
Uzbekistan (est)
2011
5,983
9,145
885
19,451
3,258
4,351
2,993
1,537
890
2,500
2012
6,991
8,999
1,500
21,317
4,495
4,667
2,872
1,596
960
2,400
2013
6,350
9,331
1,500
22,451
4,323
4,518
3,135
1,792
922
2,400
2014
5,001
9,134
1,500
23,127
3,255
4,057
2,990
1,919
926
2,400
2015
5,654
13,325
1,616
23,800
2,993
4,116
3,055
1,256
1,200
2,385
Table 2. There's uranium in them thar hills. Uranium resources are found all
around the world. This table shows the tons of uranium available in various recovery cost categories
for the 10 countries with the largest estimated reserves. (NA = data not available)
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency and
the International Atomic Energy Agency
Cost ranges
Country
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Greenland
Kazakhstan
Namibia
Niger
Russia
South Africa
<$18.14/lbU
NA
138,100
251,200
98,900
97,500
<$36.29/lbU
NA
229,400
321,800
206,300
667,200
17,700
47,700
229,500
<$58.97/lbU
1,664,100
276,800
509,000
272,500
745,300
267,000
291,500
507,800
322,400
<$117.93/lbU
1,780,800
276,800
703,600
272,500
228,000
941,600
463,000
411,300
695,200
449,300
4. Tier-one asset. The Cigar Lake project in northern Saskatchewan, shown here, began
commercial production in May 2015. It is the world's highest-grade uranium mine. Courtesy:
Cameco Corp.
ration budgets have both been cut by about
50% over the past few years. But the company
is not cutting production at one of its
newest developments-Cigar Lake (Figure
4). In fact, the company expects Cigar Lake
to reach full production of 18 million pounds
per year in 2017.
Will Demand Grow?
Most industry observers agree that the price
of uranium will recover. They point to new
nuclear power plants in China, Russia, South
Korea, and India as demand drivers, even as
questions loom over reactors in Japan and
other parts of the world. But as markets have
proven again and again, they are not always
predictable. Many experts believed U3
O8
was
poised for an uptick last year when prices
were in the $30s, but that obviously didn't
materialize.
According to the Red Book, 437 reactors
With uranium prices down, Gitzel implied
that Cameco has had to make other tough decisions.
" We've been very active in 2016, " he
said in a question and answer video posted
on the company's website. " We made the
February 2017 | POWER
decision to take down production at Rabbit
Lake-not an easy decision to take but we
did. At the same time, we took down production
in Wyoming and Nebraska. "
Cameco's capital expenditure and explowww.powermag.com
totaling
377.4 GW of net capacity were connected
to the grid when its data was compiled.
As such, it estimates that the world's
uranium requirements were 56,585 tons per
year. Looking forward, the Red Book estimates
that between 418 GW and 683 GW
of nuclear capacity will be online in 2035.
Based on the projected increase in capacity,
it says as much as 104,740 tons of uranium
would be needed per year by then.
Although the industry appears capable of
meeting the demand, it may not be as easy
as it sounds. AREVA, which has its 23 million
pound annual production split roughly
in thirds between Canada, Kazakhstan, and
Niger, said various permitting hurdles, environmental
impact studies, governmental
and local hearings, and build-out challenges
make bringing mines into production a
lengthy process.
The company spokesperson said AREVA
maintains close relationships with governmental
representatives. In Niger, its operations
represent a significant contributor to
the country's employment and economy, and
in Kazakhstan, its properties are partially
owned by the state entity Kazatomprom.
Situations such as those can help maintain
stable and secure operations.
As the Red Book concludes, " The challenge
in the coming years is likely to be less
one of adequacy of resources than adequacy
of production capacity development due to
poor uranium market conditions. " Is the market
going to bounce? Only time will tell. If
you were speculating, would you be buying
or selling uranium? Share your insights in the
comments section at the bottom of the online
version of this story by visiting powermag.
com. ■
-Aaron Larson is a POWER associate
editor.
39

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POWER February 2017

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