POWER January 2011 - 28

2011 INDUSTRY FORECAST
wistfully that " there is no demand beyond
the present 'coasting momentum.' "
The wind lobby also lamented that, in
the first half of the year, " the U.S. has installed
more coal and natural gas power
plants than wind and other clean, renewable
energy sources. By contrast, during
the previous two years, wind roughly
matched new natural gas, and together
the two sources accounted for about 90%
of all new annual generating capacity installed
over the past five years. "
In fact, data from the EIA and other
third-party sources show that wind accounted
for 39% of new installed capacity
in 2009, versus 13% from coal; in the
first nine months of 2010, however, the
ratio flipped, and wind accounted for only
14%, versus 39% from coal, according to
AWEA. Going forward, the EIA's base
case finds new wind and other renewable
energy plants will contribute on par with
gas and nuclear plant construction through
2020 and be dwarfed by gas plant construction
through 2035 (Figure 6). The EIA base
case also predicts that the installed capacity
of wind and coal will remain flat for the
next two decades (Figure 7).
Energy journalist Bill Sweet reported
in IEEE Spectrum last fall, " A more sober
mood has settled over the wind industry
this year. In the United States, where 10
gigawatts of capacity was added in 2009,
up a record-setting 20 percent from the
previous year, new turbine installations
this year are expected to be closer to 6
GW. . . . On August 18, the top Danish
wind manufacturer Vestas saw the value of
its shares drop 20 percent, after a second
straight quarterly loss and issuance of a
profit warning. Because of several adverse
trends, some of the countries that have
pushed wind most aggressively may be
approaching a saturation point where further
turbine investment would be counterproductive. "
The
problems with its industry and the
solutions, says the wind lobby, are found
in Washington. " Without stable policy,
without demand and new power purchase
agreements, and without new turbine orders,
the industry is sputtering out, " says
AWEA. " However, passage of a strong
national [renewable energy standard] will
boost demand and fire up the industry's
economic engines. " CEO Denise Bode
added, " Strong federal policy supporting
the U.S. wind energy industry has never
been more important. We have a historic
opportunity to build a major new manufacturing
industry. Without strong, supportive
policy like an RES to spur demand, investment,
and jobs, manufacturing facilities
January 2011 | POWER
6. Most new capacity will be fired by natural gas or renewables. According
to the EIA, " Decisions to add capacity and the choice of fuel type depend on a number of factors.
With growing electricity demand and the expected retirement of 45 GWs of existing capacity, 250
GWs of new generating capacity (including end-use [combined heat and power]) will be needed
between 2009 and 2035. Natural-gas-fired plants account for 46% of capacity additions . . . with
37% for renewables, 12% for coal-fired plants, and 3% for nuclear. " Source: EIA
Coal
60
50
40
30
20
10
2009-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2031-2035
7. Wind picks up rapidly, then stalls. According to the EIA, " Wind power dominates
renewable capacity growth in the near term . . . [and] increases rapidly from 2008 to 2013 in
response to the Federal [production tax credit, PTC] for wind, [American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act, ARRA] funding, and State [renewable portfolio standard, RPS] legislation. Growth in
renewable capacity slows dramatically after 2014 because of the expiration of the Federal PTC
for wind and the completion of projects expected to be supported by ARRA funding. The growth
before 2013 is adequate to meet State RPS-mandated renewable requirements through about
2030. " The propitious drop in the number of wind projects in 2010 is not apparent in the results
of this EIA base case model. Source: EIA
Coal
400
History
300
Projections
Wind
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewables/other
200
100
2003
2008
www.powermag.com
2015
2025
2035
27
Total grid-connected capacity (GW)
New capacity required (GW)

http://www.powermag.com

POWER January 2011

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