POWER January 2015 - 9

Outlook Foresees World
Wind Market Revival
Through 2014, 47 GW of new wind power
capacity will be installed in China, Brazil,
South Africa, Mexico, and other emerging
markets, marking a sharp recovery for the
global wind industry after four years of
relatively flat growth, the Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC) predicted in its Global
Wind Energy Outlook 2014 (GWEO).
The sluggish growth was in large part
caused by a combination of low or negative
demand growth in developed countries
and policy instability in key markets,
GWEC head Steve Sawyer told reporters at
the outlook's release in October. According
to the GWEO, the last significant jump
in annual market size was in 2009. " Since
then, it has hovered around the 40 GW
mark, with major ups and downs in the
US, an end to the exponential growth in
the Chinese market and little or no growth
in Europe. "
But that's slated to change. Under the
most aggressive of three growth scenarios,
worldwide installation of wind could reach
2,000 GW by 2030, Sawyer said, with at
least 500 GW in China. Under the moderate
scenario, about 712 GW would be installed
by the end of the decade and 1,479
GW around the world by 2030.
In Africa, where wind farms are currently
centered in North Africa-but
where wind resources are best around
the coasts and eastern highlands-installations
are expected to soar in Egypt,
Morocco, East Africa (Figure 2), and particularly,
in South Africa. In South Africa,
only 10 MW of capacity was in operation
in 2013, but by the end of 2014, 1 GW
will be online.
China, which leads the world in installed
wind capacity, is seeing a market
slowdown as discussions about lowering
its feed-in-tariff for wind power continue.
However, offshore wind development is
booming, noted the report. The country
has 428.6 MW of installed offshore capacity
and seven offshore projects under construction
that will put about 5 GW more
online by the end of 2015.
Brazil, Latin America's largest economy,
is also shying away from its historic reliance
on hydropower and banking on wind.
By the end of 2013, its total installed capacity
stood at more than 3.4 GW; by August
2014, it had broken the 5-GW mark;
and by the end of 2014, it is expected to
have installed 7 GW.
Even the U.S., which saw a slowdown
following expiration of the production tax
credit at the end of 2013, is expected to
see growth, GWEC anticipated. At the end
of 2013, more than 12 GW of new generating
capacity was under construction and
60 long-term contracts were signed. " The
industry has at least two good years ahead
of it, " said the report.
2. A whirlwind for world wind. The Global Wind Energy Council anticipates a significant
jump in the world's wind market, driven by emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and South
America. In November, for example, Iberdrola completed construction of Kenya's first wind
farm, the 13.6-MW Ngong II project. In December construction began on the 300-MW Lake
Turkana wind farm in Kenya, an $800 million project that will become Africa's largest installation
when completed in early 2017. This image shows blades arriving for a Kenyan wind farm. Courtesy:
Iberdrola
Alstom Reports Major
Boost for Advanced
Ultrasupercritical
Technology
The trial operation of a steam loop for more
than 17,000 hours at temperatures exceeding
760C (1,400F)-the highest ever tested
at a pulverized coal plant-have wrapped
up at Plant Barry Unit 4 in Alabama, and
all components appear to have retained
their original mechanical integrity, Alstom
reported in early December.
The achievement represents a major
development boost for advanced ultrasupercritical
(AUSC) technology, which
uses steam cycles with temperatures of
700C to 760C to increase the net electrical
efficiency of a pulverized coal plant.
Maximum steam temperatures are limited
by the properties of the materials used in
high-temperature components, which typically
lose strength as temperature rises.
As Kyle Nicol, a process consultant for
the International Energy Agency's Clean
Coal Centre, explained to POWER, historically,
steam temperatures have increased
alongside the development of steels-
from subcritical steam temperatures to
supercritical, and now ultrasupercritical.
" However, further development of steels
has been negligible-the steel barrier has
been reached, " he said.
That means there's a race to develop
advanced new materials that support AUSC
steam temperatures for a service lifetime
of 20 to 40 years at experimental power
plant programs in the U.S., the European
Union, Russia, Japan, China, and India. As
of December 2013, programs in the U.S.,
China, Japan, and India had largely completed
small-scale laboratory tests and
had advanced to manufacturing largescale
components and testing them in a
components test facility.
The European program-which was the
first to begin developing AUSC technology
in the late 1990s-successfully tested largescale
boiler components and valves at the
COMTES700 facility at steam temperatures
of 700C, but " technical difficulties " stalled
further progress, said Nicol. India, in particular,
said it is on track to begin operating a
full-scale demonstration plant by 2018. " Assuming
successful operation of a [full-scale
demonstration plant], the commercialization
of [an AUSC pulverized coal] power plant
will rest entirely on the plant economics in
2027, which depend on variable factors such
as the future value of coal, cost of nickel
alloys, and a carbon tax. "
In that context, Alstom's achievement
at Southern Co.'s Plant Barry is significant.
The company's boiler research team
January 2015 | POWER
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POWER January 2015

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