POWER January 2017 - 12

SPEAKING OF POWER
5. Renewables increasing fastest.
This chart projects world net electricity generation
by fuel from 2012 to 2040. Source: EIA,
International Energy Outlook 2016
is a matter of debate. What's not debatable
is that greater industry education,
preparedness, and vigilance about cyber
vulnerabilities should be on every generator's
strategic plan for 2017 and beyond.
As for a potential silver lining: Highlighting
the integration of digital technologies
and cybersecurity functions at power
facilities, and the need for more digitally
savvy employees at all levels, could be a
strategy for attracting new workers to this
sector.
Global Power Trends
It's old news that the greatest demand
growth and need for electrification is
beyond North America. Though we don't
have room to cover all the factors shaping
the power sector everywhere around the
world in the near future, here are a few
that cut across multiple nations and that
have international implications.
Slower Growth. In May 2016, the EIA
released its International Energy Outlook
2016, which predicted continued decoupling
of power demand and economic
growth,
saying,
" The
world's
frenzied
economic growth through 2040 won't be
matched by electricity demand growth. "
That's not to say there won't be growth,
but even China, the poster child for power
infrastructure booms, is learning that unmanaged,
runaway growth has unintended
consequences. POWER has published stories
over the past several months about
pullbacks on both renewable project development
and coal-fired units, including
some already under construction, resulting
from excess coal and even hydro capacity.
That's one reason China is promoting the
possibility of more interconnections with
other countries on the continent.
Competitive Advantages for Newer
Fuels and Technologies. Around the
world, the declining cost of wind and solar
technologies has resulted in econom12
ics,
not just environmental policy, driving
the decision to add these renewables, despite
their variable output. With the Paris
Agreement coming into force on November
4, 2016, the 115 nations that ratified it
by October 5 (out of the 197 total) will
be looking at both their commitments to
lower greenhouse gases and at the economics
of meeting those commitments.
That's why even if a Trump administration
somehow extricates the U.S. from
the agreement, it's likely to have little to
no effect on either U.S. generation decisions
(see above) or the decisions of other
countries. It could, however, give the U.S.
less leverage in a range of international
negotiations, especially over energy-related
technologies.
None of the advantages for renewables
will lead to a rapid decline for fossil fuels.
A November report from McKinsey &
Company, " Energy 2050: Insights from the
Ground Up, " comports with most similar
projections (which assume a " business-asusual "
scenario) when it finds that " Fossil
fuels will dominate energy use through
2050. This is because of the massive investments
that have already been made
and because of the superior energy intensity
and reliability of fossil fuels. The mix,
however, will change. Gas will continue to
grow quickly, but the global demand for
coal will likely peak around 2025. "
The report continues, " By 2050, the research
estimates that coal will be down to
just 16 percent of global power generation
(from 41 percent now) and fossil fuels to
38 percent (from 66 percent now). Overall,
though, coal, oil, and gas will continue to
be 74 percent of primary energy demand,
down from 82 percent now. After that, the
rate of decline is likely to accelerate. "
The EIA makes similar projections.
It expects net power generation to increase
69% by 2040 compared to 2012,
with slower growth in Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development
countries. China and India are expected to
account for 69% of the projected increase
in coal-fired generation over that time period,
and renewables are the fastest growing
source of electricity (Figure 5).
Policies Promoting Clean Energy. One
policy trend that's developing could assist
the acceleration of declining fossil fuel
use: countries pledging to go coal-free
and/or to phase out all fossil-fueled cars.
For example, the Canadian federal government
recently announced a plan to
phase out all coal-fired generation (currently
about 7% of the national total) by
2030 unless it includes carbon capture and
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sequestration, though it subsequently created
a carve-out for Saskatchewan coalfired
plants (which provide nearly half of
the province's electricity) as long as the
province achieves comparable emissions
reductions by other means.
Meanwhile, Germany has taken initial
steps to allow the sale of only zero-emissions
cars by 2030. That's a mere 13 years
from now. Should Germany reach that
goal (unlikely on that timeframe, given
the political clout of automakers BMW,
Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen), it would
reduce air pollution from diesel engines
in particular; " as of 2013, about 1.4 out
of 2.9 million new German passenger cars
were diesels, " according to an October
IEEE Spectrum story. A wholesale transition
to electric vehicles (EVs) would add
load to the electric grid, potentially assisting
grid-balancing efforts if EVs charge
when variable renewables generate power
and if vehicle batteries can be aggregated
for demand response programs.
Late last year, there were signs that
Norway, whose national economy is heavily
financed by oil exploration and development,
was poised to adopt an even
more aggressive goal of selling only zeroemission
cars by the end of 2025, though
it will not technically " ban " fossil-fueled
vehicles. About a quarter of Norway's cars
are currently electric, and the country's
grid is nearly 100% hydropowered.
It's not just Europe moving in this direction.
Greentech Media reported that, " In
March, India's Power Minister Piyush Goyal
confirmed his government was planning
for India to become a 100 percent electric
vehicle nation within 14 years. " Given his
goal for the plan to be self-funding, and
considering the state of India's power infrastructure,
this seems overly ambitious,
but the announcement itself is noteworthy.
China also has plans to promote EVs
in order to control air pollution, and it is
addressing the problem from the supply
side by developing its EV manufacturing
industry.
I mention these EV goals for a couple
of reasons. Obviously, should EV use grow
substantially, as many nations hope, power
grids will have new load and, potentially,
new energy storage devices that could
help balance an increasingly complex grid
of distributed and variable energy sources.
In some instances, the balance could shift
from grid-supplied power to self-generation
and storage, particularly at the microgrid
level. The larger, underlying trend
is the move toward cleaner energy systems-not
just power generation.
POWER | January 2017
kWh (trillion)
http://www.powermag.com
POWER January 2017

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