POWER January 2020 - 39

POWER TRANSITIONS
Year Coal
Natural
gas
combined
cycle
Natural
gas
combustion
turbine
Wind
Solar
PV
Solar
thermal
Nuclear
Hydro
Average
price of
natural
gas ($/
Mcf)
2009 64.2% 43.9% 6.8% 28.1% 20.0% 23.6% 90.3% 39.6% $4.93
2010 67.1% 44.3% 7.8% 29.7% 20.2% 24.5% 91.1% 37.5% $5.27
2011 62.8% 44.3% 7.9% 32.1% 19.0% 23.9% 89.1% 45.8% $4.89
2012 56.2% 52.2% 8.9% 31.8% 20.4% 23.6% 86.6% 39.6% $3.54
2013 59.4% 48.8% 8.3% 32.4% 24.5% 17.4% 90.8% 38.8% $4.49
2014 60.5% 48.6% 8.3% 34.0% 25.6% 18.3% 91.7% 37.2% $5.19
2015 54.3% 55.8% 9.8% 32.2% 25.5% 21.7% 92.3% 35.7% $3.38
2016 52.8% 55.4% 11.0% 34.5% 25.0% 22.1% 92.3% 38.2% $2.99
2017 53.1% 51.2% 9.6% 34.6% 25.6% 21.8% 92.3% 43.0% $3.51
2018 53.6% 55.0% 11.9% 34.6% 25.1% 23.6% 92.5% 41.9% $3.68
Table 2. Average capacity factors for utility-scale generators in the U.S. and price of natural
gas for power consumption in dollars per thousand cubic feet ($/Mcf). Source: EIA
NATURAL GAS FOR POWER GENERATION
Month
January
2019
July 2019
Consumption
(MMcf)
840,697
1,273,538
Price
($/Mcf)
$4.16
$2.62
REISDENTIAL NATURAL GAS
Consumption
(MMcf)
951,789
113,482
Price
($/Mcf)
$9.45
$17.94
Table 3. This table shows the total consumption in million cubic feet (MMcf) and average
price of natural gas for electric power generation and residential use in January and July 2019.
Source: EIA
Ambient and Daily Impacts on
Generation
Reviewing annual data does not provide
a clear view of the significance
that coal-fired units and other technologies
have in the daily generation profile.
If Jan. 30, 2019, the coldest day of the
year, and July 19, 2019, the hottest day
of the year, are analyzed, a better view
of the significance that coal-fired generation
and the generation mix have on the
power generation profile in the lower 48
states is obtained. In January 2019, there
was 834,116 MMcf (million cubic feet) of
natural gas used for power generation,
while in July 2019, one of the highest
monthly consumptions of natural gas for
power generation occurred (1,267,083
MMcf), which coincided with one of the
lowest average prices for gas. A comparison
of natural gas usage and pricing is
presented in Table 3.
As can be seen in Figure 2, coal
generation played a significant role in
the generation mix on Jan. 30, 2019.
At times, coal generation was virtually
equal to gas generation. Figure 2 also
shows that on this particular winter day,
solar had a minimal impact on the total
generation and wind generation peaked
at about midnight while total load was
decreasing. Hydro generation was able
to optimize output to match peak demands.
Nuclear generation was baseloaded
and provided almost 20% of the
total generation.
The capacity factor for coal units on
Jan. 30, 2019, was 68.4% (above the
annual average) and the capacity factor
for natural gas was 38.5% (below the annual
average). If gas was to completely
replace coal on that particular winter day,
an additional 3,871 GWh of gas generation
would have been required, if we
assume that renewable capacity was
optimized. An analysis would have to be
made to determine if there was enough
gas available without reducing residential
and commercial usage. For the lower
48 states, solar only provided 1% of the
generation, while wind provided 5.3%
on the coldest day of the year.
Figure 3 presents the generation profile
for July 19, 2019-the hottest day of
the year. The load profile and the cost of
fuels are significantly different from Jan.
30. On Jan. 30, the total daily system
load was 12,619 GWh with a peak load of
568 GWh, while on July 19, the total system
load was 13,747 GWh with a peak
of 692 GWh. In July, there was minimal
natural gas needed for residential use,
therefore abundant gas was available for
power generation at reduced cost.
In January 2019, the monthly average
price of natural gas for power generation
was $4.16/Mcf (thousand cubic
feet). The average price in July 2019 was
$2.62/Mcf. The higher price of natural
gas in January had a direct impact on
the increase in coal generation. January
2019 had the highest total monthly
consumption of natural gas dating back
to 2001. However, natural gas for power
generation was only slightly elevated.
There was more wind generation on
July 19 than on Jan. 30, and gas was
used to pick up most of the capacity.
Again, hydro was able to optimize its
generation with coal providing peaking
and baseload supplies.
On July 19, the coal-fired fleet had a ca1.
Comparison of U.S. natural gas deliveries to electric power consumers in million cubic feet
(MMcf) versus the price of natural gas for electric power generators in dollars per thousand
cubic feet ($/Mcf). Note: 1 cubic foot = 1,036 Btu (based on the U.S. average for natural gas
delivered to consumers in 2018). Source: EIA
January 2020 | POWER
www.powermag.com
pacity factor of 61.9%, while the natural
gas-fired fleet operated with a capacity
factor of 48.0%. The increased coal-fired
capacity factor demonstrates its significance
during high-demand periods.
39
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POWER January 2020

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