POWER January 2021 - 9

GLOBAL MONITOR
to a COVID-driven fall in spot natural gas
prices of between 20% and 50%, and a
decline in power demand. The decline was
especially prominent in Nordic countries.
Separately, COVID's effect on util1.
Global flexibility needs, measured as hour-to-hour adjustments here, are set to double by
2040 in the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) " Stated Policies Scenario " (STEPS). However,
" today's market designs may not bring sufficient investment, for example, in power plants, networks,
demand-side response and energy storage, including batteries, " it said. Courtesy: IEA,
World Energy Outlook 2020
Flexibility Is Now a Cornerstone of
Electricity Security. Owing to shifting
power profiles-mainly an increase in
variable capacity-wavering demand,
and pandemic-related fuel supply disruptions,
2020 showed how important
flexibility is and will be to electricity security.
" One point of consistency across
all WEO2020 scenarios is that flexibility
needs are set to rise, " noted IEA analyst
Tim Goodson.
In the STEPS, flexibility needs are set
to double globally out to 2040 (Figure 1).
" The good news is that there are many
flexibility sources available from power
plants to electricity networks, storage
technologies, and demand response
measures, " Goodson said. " Today, coal
and gas-fired power plants are the main
source of flexibility in many systems,
with additional major contributions
from low-carbon sources like hydro and
nuclear power. Looking ahead, storage
and demand-side response could play
central roles in flexibility with the right
policies and regulations. "
Market Forces Are a Wildcard. While
the IEA has noted a general decline in
wholesale power prices since 2019, the
trend accelerated in 2020, owing partly
ity finances could have repercussions
for continued investment in technologies
direly needed to ensure electricity
security, said IEA's Arsalane. Because
the grid will serve as a " bedrock of [a]
clean and secure electricity future, "
enabling adequate flexibility could require
grid extensions totaling " 16 million
kilometers in the STEPS. It's an
increase of 80% compared to the past
decade, " she said (Figure 2). " The problem
is-and we see this in 2020-that
depressed revenues for grid operators
due to the pandemic are creating risks
for this step-up of investment and the
timing of these investments. " Regulatory
reforms may be needed to ensure
sufficient cash flow for timely grid investment,
which if unaddressed, will
pose risks to electricity security as well
as slow the pace of the clean energy
transition, she said.
Low-Carbon Policies, Ambitions Are
on the Rise. The EMR2020 highlights a
dramatic increase in national policy obNo
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January 2021 | POWER
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POWER January 2021

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