POWER July 2016 - 10

THE BIG PICTURE: China's Power Glut
Over the past decade, driven by a booming energy-intensive industry, China's thermal power generation capacity has seen a
compound annual growth rate of about 11.1%. But now that the country is facing a more sluggish economy and power
demand has softened, and as it battles rampant air pollution and has accelerated renewable power capacity additions, it is
facing a massive coal power glut. (See also this month's Commentary at the back of the issue.) The National Energy
Administration (NEA), the National Development and Reform Commission's energy management arm, estimates nearly 300
GW of coal-fired capacity has been approved or is under construction around the country-but it has determined that no
more than 190 GW of new capacity will be needed before 2020. In April, the government took the drastic measure to halt
construction of coal-fired power plants in 13 provinces where capacity is in surplus and forced developers to stall construction
of already approved plants in another 15 provinces. Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Electricity
Council, NEA -Copy and artwork by Sonal Patel, a POWER associate editor
4,329
hours
4,706
hours
5,012
hours
Change from
2012:
4,982
hours
47
GW
37
GW
52
GW
762
GW
New and
existing
thermal:
71%
of total
installed
capacity
826
GW
New and
existing
thermal:
69%
of total
installed
capacity
868
GW
New and
existing
thermal:
67%
of total
installed
capacity
926
GW
New and
existing
thermal:
66%
of total
installed
capacity
+1%
Change from
2012:
-6%
64
GW
A key indicator of China's
surplus is its utilization
rate. The hours that China's
thermal plants operate
have fallen sharply in
recent years. Generally, the
industry regards more than
5,500 hours of thermal
plant operation as a signal
that it is facing a power
supply pinch, while less
than 4,500 hours indicates
a power surplus. In 2015,
the utilization rate was
4,329 hours-a new
69-year low.
Change from
2012:
-13%
Estimated
new thermal
capacity*
Existing thermal
capacity
333
GW
2012
1,147
GW
10
385
GW
2013
1,247
GW
445
GW
2014
1,360
GW
www.powermag.com
517
GW
2015
1,507
GW
POWER | July 2016
Non-thermal
capacity
*Figures are drawn from official published data. Totals year
to year may not be consistent with data from previous
years, most likely to due to rounding and retirements of
older generation.
Total installed
capacity

http://www.powermag.com

POWER July 2016

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of POWER July 2016

Contents
POWER July 2016 - Cover1
POWER July 2016 - Cover2
POWER July 2016 - Contents
POWER July 2016 - 2
POWER July 2016 - 3
POWER July 2016 - 4
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POWER July 2016 - Cover3
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