POWER June 2020 - 6

SPEAKING OF POWER
COVID-19 Makes for
an Interesting Summer
Peak Season
Aaron Larson
t's peak season for the U.S. power
industry. While actual dates may vary
from one utility to another, generally
the summer peak period spans from Memorial
Day (May 25 this year) to Labor
Day (Sept. 7). It's a time when power
companies do everything possible to ensure
power plants are available and able
to provide 100% capacity 24/7.
Many plants prepare for peak seaI
son
by taking spring maintenance outages.
All equipment gets a thorough
inspection and every known deficiency
gets addressed. It's similar to what you
might do to your car prior to taking a
long road trip-change the oil, check the
tires, top off all the fluids, inspect belts
for signs of trouble, and basically ensure
no obvious problem goes unidentified.
Now is when the rubber hits the road
for the power industry.
Pandemic Alters Normal Plans
However, COVID-19 disrupted the usual
routine. On May 12, POWER hosted a
webinar titled " Market Insights-Spring
Report. " The session, which was recorded
and is available for viewing through a
link on POWER's website (www.power
mag.com/webinars), included panelists
from four of the North American Regional
Transmission Organizations (RTO)/
Independent System Operators (ISO).
Each speaker gave a short presentation
covering trends in
their
territory and
touching on impacts of the coronavirus.
Philip Bruich, director of markets for
the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which
oversees the bulk electric grid and wholesale
power market in all or parts of 14
states in the central U.S., said, " We've
seen a marked change in our scheduled
generation outages. " Bruich presented a
chart showing the generation capacity
that was offline for scheduled outages
in the January through May timeframe
from 2016 through 2020. While 2020
was fairly consistent with the other years
in January, February, and most of March,
it was about 30% less in April and May
6
compared to previous years.
Bruich said RTO members had indicated
to SPP that the driving force behind
the decrease in outages was crew
unavailability. He suggested there was
uncertainty in many circles about how
COVID-19 might spread; confirmed cases
were growing in all areas and no one
seemed to know when the trend might
end. " They didn't want to put their crews
at risk and at the same time didn't want
to get in the middle of a busy outage
season-which you typically see in April
and May-and not be able to wrap up
the generation outages quickly enough,
again, due to some concerns on what
crew unavailability might be, " he said.
The problem, of course, is that when
scheduled outages are canceled, some
of the work that was planned can't be
done and gets deferred. There is usually
a reason for work to be scheduled, such
as a vibration reading trending higher,
an ultrasonic test result indicating excessive
wear, or a vendor identifying
a deficiency-similar to an automobile
recall. Those problems don't go away
without maintenance, and usually worsen
the longer they go unaddressed. That
could mean more forced outages during
peak season this year, when equipment
that didn't receive the necessary attention
ultimately fails.
Furthermore, some spring
outages
will likely shift to the fall, which is another
common outage time as load demand
decreases and more plant managers
choose to shut down for maintenance.
Bruich said SPP could possibly see a
30% increase in scheduled outages later
this year or an increased forced outage
rate. " This is going to be a very delicate
balancing act going forward, " he said.
Load Down This Spring, Forecasting
Summer Demand a Challenge
New York has been devastated by the
pandemic, and it's not out of the woods
yet. Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered a
statewide lockdown on March 20, which
had a significant impact on power syswww.powermag.com
tem
load. Emily Nelson, executive vice
president with the New York ISO (NYISO),
said the New York Control Area experienced
about an 8% reduction in peak
load as a result of stay-at-home orders.
" Interestingly, in New York City, the
reduction in demand at times was about
20% below what we typically see, " she
said. " We've seen shifts in commercial
demand, as many of the office buildings
have been closed down, and increased
residential demand as people shelter in
place and work from home. "
But predicting what will happen during
peak season is not an easy task.
Some parts of New York, mostly upstate,
are starting to reopen. Nelson said understanding
how the reopening might
dovetail with summer behavior across
the commercial and residential sectors is
difficult. " Quite frankly, it's hard to tell, "
she said. " Certainly, the situation is very
fluid and dynamic at this point. "
SPP experienced effects similar to
NYISO. Bruich said SPP analyzed this
year's load against like-kind days from
the past, meaning comparisons were between
days with temperatures of plus or
minus 3F. " Beginning in late March and
April, we've seen about a 7% to 9% drop
in our load, " he reported.
However, the Electric Reliability Council
of Texas (ERCOT) grid was less affected
by stay-at-home orders. Kenan
Ögelman, vice president of Commercial
Operations with ERCOT, said some days
there was no impact on peak load, while
other days saw a decrease of between
2% and 5%. In general, though, ERCOT's
energy usage has been down 2%
to 5% since lockdowns began.
Like Nelson, Ögelman suggested predicting
summer load would be difficult.
" Past analysis isn't necessarily the best
indicator of future conditions, " he said.
" One reason for that is that the state restrictions
are changing in Texas. So, what
we saw in the past may be very different
than what we see in the future. " ■
-Aaron Larson is POWER's
executive editor.
POWER|June 2020
http://www.power http://www.mag.com/webinars http://www.powermag.com
POWER June 2020

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