POWER May 2011 - 54

Atlas Energy Recovery Ad 4.5 x 10:Layout 1 4/8/11 3:01 PM Page 1
The FuTure oF Coal
Use your energy twice
sponse to the combined rules and a GHG
program assumed to be in place by 2018.
The average age of those plants identified
for retirement will be 53 years in 2015;
they average 150 MW; and over 60% of
those units do not have flue gas desulfurization
systems installed. This group
makes up the high-cost category (Figure
2), consistent with the at-risk population
discussed earlier.
However, there is not perfect overlap between
the projected retirements and the atrisk
groupings. Of the retirements that ICF
projected, about 14 GW were units younger
than 40 years by 2015, and 18 GW were
larger than 200 MW. In addition, about 20
GW of the capacity was already equipped
with scrubbers. These exceptions to the rule
point to the importance of market factors in
evaluating unit retirement decisions.
The decision factors also point to the
importance of assumptions about the effectiveness
of control technologies, regulatory
requirements, and future market dynamics,
including natural gas prices. To the extent that
compliance costs related to ash and water are
lower than assumed here, or that the charge
on CO2
does not materialize, for example,
even some of the units with the highest assumed
control costs may install controls and
continue to operate.
The Toxics Rule is the single largest conHi,
I'm Clint and I have been taking care of my customers in the Carolinas for
over 6 years. Energy recovery has really come to the forefront in recent years.
At Atlas Copco, we have invested heavily in technology that allows our
customers to basically use their energy twice.
Switching your compressor into an energy source sounds too good to be true,
right?Well, with the Atlas Copco ZR range of air compressors, that's reality. The
electrical input power for producing compressed air can be recovered in the
form of hot water and used for many industrial applications, space heating and
sanitary purposes. Our impressive energy recovery technology and the proven
reliability of the ZR range helps to protect both your bottom line and your plant.
Our mission is to continue to
bring sustainable productivity
through safer, cleaner, more
energy-efficient, and
cost-effective compressed air
technology. Simply log onto
www.atlascopco.us/clintusa
or call 866-688-9611 to learn
more about us, our products,
and how we have earned and
will continue to earn our reputation.
tributor to assumed compliance costs for
most of the at-risk units and therefore is a key
driver of the retirement results. However, the
other rules also contribute substantial costs
for many units, so retirement decisions must
be considered holistically, not each time a
new rule goes into effect.
Beyond the five rules (the four rules discussed
earlier plus GHG regulation) considered
here, plant owners will also have to
account for other future drivers of each unit's
profitability. The basic calculation that owners
of coal assets-and, in many cases, their
regulators-need to make is this: What controls
do I need to install to bring my plants
into compliance, how much is that compliance
going to cost, and is that investment
justified based on estimated future revenue
from the power (and, if applicable, capacity
and ancillary services) markets? Compounding
the decision-making difficulty
are projections of natural gas prices, load
growth, and future of CO2
regulation. Taken
together, these factors will dominate and
drive resource planning and capital investment
decisions-now for each unit at each
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POWER | May 2011
plant-for many years to come. ■
-Chris MacCracken (cmaccracken@
icfi.com) is a principal and Steve Fine
(sfine@icfi.com) is a vice president for
ICF International.
http://www.atlascopco.us/clintusa http://www.powermag.com
POWER May 2011

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