POWER May 2012 - 48

FOSSIL FUELS
Germany's Transformation
Germany faces considerable challenges
in abandoning nuclear power (the Atomausstieg)
and moves its energy production
to sustainable sources (the Energiewende).
With indigenous lignite (brown coal) and
2. Coal rush begins. Coal-fired power plant construction in Europe is forecast to rise
sharply in the years up to 2017 following the closure of old coal plants and nuclear plants, notably
in Germany. Source: ecoprog GmbH
Units
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Table 1. Nuclear exit strategy. Germany is considering several approaches to fulfilling energy
demand in the absence of nuclear power. Shown are three suggested scenarios for Germany's
energy future developed by BNetzA, Germany's Federal Network Agency. Scenario A assumes all of
the German government's priorities for climate and energy policy will be implemented and includes
a moderate rise in coal-fired energy production. Scenario B starts with the assumptions for Scenario
A but assumes a larger portion of renewable power, as well as more natural gas-fired energy production.
This would make the system more flexible and reliable, due to a diversified mix of energy
sources. Scenario C, the least realistic scenario, assumes Germany will have explosive growth in
renewable energy, nearly tripling such resources between 2010 and 2022. It assumes that Germany
will not continue to build new fossil fuel-fired power plants through 2022. Source: BNetzA
2010
Technology
Nuclear
Brown coal
Black coal
Natural gas
Pumped storage
Oil
Other
Total conventional GW)
Hydro
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Photovoltaic
Biomass
Other
Total renewables (GW)
Total production (GW)
Energy consumption (TWh)
Peak demand (GW)
48
Baseline
20.3
21.2
29.5
22.1
6.7
3.3
3.0
106.1
4.5
27.0
0.2
16.9
4.9
1.5
55.0
161.0
548.0
83.0
2022
Scenario A
0.0
20.1
33.4
23.3
9.1
2.1
4.0
92.3
5.6
33.4
11.3
34.1
7.4
1.7
93.5
186.0
500.0
75.0
2022
Scenario B
0.0
20.4
26.2
37.0
9.1
2.1
4.0
98.8
4.7
44.0
13.0
54.0
9.1
1.8
126.6
225.0
550.0
83.0
2032
Scenario B
0.0
15.8
21.9
37.0
9.1
0.6
8.0
92.4
4.9
61.0
28.0
65.0
10.0
2.8
171.7
264.0
600.0
83.0
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2032
Scenario C
0.0
17.7
26.2
23.3
9.1
2.1
4.0
82.4
4.6
69.9
18.0
46.8
8.7
2.0
150.0
232.0
550.0
83.0
Capacity
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
hard coal already fueling one-third of Germany's
155 GW generating capacity, coal
could be seen as an obvious choice to fill
the 20-GW hole left by the nuclear exit.
Despite much media talk of money earmarked
for climate protection being diverted
to build new coal plants, a 2011 report for the
German federal ministry of economics and
technology suggests that this is an oversimplification.
Yes, Germany is likely to build
several new coal plants in the near future, but
the country's share of coal-fired generation
will decline rapidly-with or without an exit
from nuclear power.
The report was prepared by two research
organizations in Germany and one in Switzerland:
the Institute of Energy Economics
(EWI) at the University of Köln, the
Society for Structural Economic Research
(GWS) in Osnabrück, and Prognos AG of
Basel. As far as coal and lignite are concerned,
it suggests that generating capacity
will fall from 55 GW now to 20 GW
by 2030, even if the Atomausstieg decision
were somehow to be reversed. Instead, the
gap created by growing demand and loss
of coal and nuclear capacity will be made
up by gas, offshore wind, and especially
solar photovoltaics. Similar predictions
have been prepared by BNerzA, Germany's
Federal Network Agency (Table 1).
Other work by the Prognos/EWI/GWS
consortium suggests that ecoprog's forecast
coal boom may be overstated. A scenario
study published by the consortium
in August 2010 showed around 14 GW of
new coal capacity planned or under construction.
In another study published a
year later, however, the researchers lowered
this estimate to less than 11 GW and
suggested that no investment in new coal
capacity was likely before 2020.
Acting against investment in new German
coal capacity is public opinion in
favor of the Energiewende, backed by the
country's strong coalition of politicians-
including conservatives-and environmental
activists. BUND (Friends of the
Earth Germany) sets up highly organized
protests against new coal plants and claims
to have halted 11 coal power projects in
the past three years.
British Indecision
Britain is similar to Germany in its dependence
on coal, which accounts for around
one-third of current generating capacity.
Operators in the UK chose six coal-fired
and three oil-fired power plants to opt out
from the LCPD. With a total capacity of
around 11.5 GW, these nine plants accounted
for around 15% of UK generating capacity at
the time of the decision in 2001 (Table 2).
POWER | May 2012
Number of units per year
Installed capacity per year (MW)

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POWER May 2012

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