POWER May 2013 - 32

ENERGY POLICY
watts (MW) of capacity will be added to
the grid, comprising approximately 1,500
MW of nuclear generation and 1,500 MW
of grid-connected renewable generation.
By February 2014, total wind and solar
generation connected to the transmission
and distribution systems in Ontario will
reach approximately 4,800 MW. " Over the
longer term, a combination of renewables
and conservation is expected to meet additional
demand (Table 2).
To date, the grid has suffered no ill effects
and, in fact, has a healthy reserve margin and
has been a net power exporter.
In November 2012, the IESO projected
a yearly reserve margin of 20.2% for
2013 and reserve margins at or above 18%
through 2017-easily meeting the resource
adequacy criterion for the next five years
" assuming all new resources and transmission
development projects are delivered on
time. " Ontario's required reserve margin
averages approximately 18.7% without reliance
on emergency operating procedures
or imports. Note that in the modeling for
Ontario's most recent projection, 13% of
installed wind capacity was assumed to be
available at the time of summer peak, and
33% at the winter peak.
Table 2. Historic and projected capacity, by fuel. Projections were made in the
2010 " Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan. " Sources: Ministry of Energy (projections), IESO (2012)
Installed capacity
Nuclear
Renewables:
hydroelectric
Renewables: wind,
solar, bioenergy
Gas
Coal
Conservation
Total
Note: NA = not available.
The IESO says that the province has the
capacity to import or export " approximately
4,800 MW at any one time, depending on
system conditions. " Its high-voltage transmission
grid is connected to Manitoba, Quebec,
New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Net imports or exports have varied from year
to year since 1997, when net imports were
-2.6 TWh, followed by 3 TWh in 1998. In
2003, net imports were 4.1 TWh, followed
by 0.3 TWh in 2004. Ontario has been posting
higher net exports ever since, with a high
of 10.9 TWh exported in 2008 and 9.9 TWh
most recently, in 2012.
As for managing increased variable
resources on the grid, that hasn't posed
insurmountable problems. In a January Toronto
Star piece, Tyler Hamilton, energy
and technology columnist, quoted Bruce
Campbell, vice-president of resource integration
at the IESO, as saying that the
province hasn't yet had to increase back2003
MW
10,061
7,880
155
4,364
7,546
30,006
2010 MW
(projected)
11,446
8,127
1,657
9,424
4,484
1,837
36,975
2012 MW (actual)
12,998
7,947
1,633
9,987
3,293
NA
35,858
2030 MW
(projected)
12,000
9,000
10,700
9,200
7,100
48,000
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POWER | May 2013
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POWER May 2013

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