POWER May 2013 - 41

ENERGY POLICY
balance to the new situation: By mid-2012,
renewable generation reached 11 TWh-a
level projected to be reached this year-and net
exports increased again to 2010 levels. At the
same time, electricity demand did not increase.
Renewable generation is expected to surge to
between 231 TWh and 283 TWh by 2025 under
separate scenarios from the federal ministries of
Environment and Economy. More ambitious political
targets from the federal states, explained
partly by different expectations for the growth
of onshore wind power, project renewable generation
could reach 315 TWh as early as 2020
(Figure 4). If these projections are achieved by
2020, technically, renewables could exceed the
roughly 140 TWh generated by Germany's operational
nuclear fleet in 2010.
A bevy of studies since 2011 examining the
effect of the nuclear phaseout on power generation,
cost, emissions, and security of supply
in Germany concede that Germany's best
chances of replacing its nuclear power capacity
while meeting long-term climate protection
targets (and most studies conclude that it is
possible) will require substantially decreased
exports to the Netherlands and Austria, increased
imports from France and the Czech
Republic, a grid expansion, and increased reliance
(about 21 GW) on coal and gas plants.
As evidenced over the two winters since the
announced nuclear phaseout, Germany's supply
issues will be most critical in the winter, when
France typically relies on imports from Germany
(because it relies on power for domestic
heating). But it will likely also rely on imports
to meet certain demand conditions, analyses
from the European Network of Transmission
System Operators (ENTSO-E) and research
firm Prognos show. A number of scenario analyses
forecast tight generation capacity in the
southern regions, where most of the phased-out
nuclear power is concentrated, and suggest excess
power from the north should be rerouted
to the south-a recommendation strongly advocated
by the Federal Network Agency and
ministries involved with the transition.
The Grid Dilemma
In the immediate aftermath of eliminating
nearly 5 GW of secured generation capacity
in the southern German region alone following
Fukushima, the Federal Network Agency, in
conjunction with German transmission system
operators, warned that failure of key network
equipment or a major power plant-caused by
potential overloading of transmission routes
and by voltage control in the southern region-
could critically jeopardize security and reliability
of the German power supply. But when
asked to decide by parliament by August 2011
whether one of the decommissioned reactors
should be designated as a " cold reserve " plant
to ensure security, the Federal Network Agency
claimed that even with the disturbances it had
warned about, system security in the transmission
network could be guaranteed-if a variety
of measures were taken into account.
In May 2012, at the German Energy Agency's
(DENA's) behest, the nation's four grid
operators (TSOs)-50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT
TSO, and TransnetBW-drew up a joint network
development plan identifying necessary
expansions to help transmit power from the
North and Baltic Sea, where many offshore
wind parks are being planned and built, to
industrialized areas in southern and western
Germany. Assuming wind power was the primary
driver of the expansion and increased
from 27 GW in 2012 to 51 GW by 2020, at
minimum, 4,400 km of existing lines would
need to be optimized and 3,800 km of power
lines (1,700 km of new alternating current and
2,100 km of new direct current) would need to
be built. This could cost in the vicinity of €20
billion over the next decade, the TSOs said.
The urgency of an accelerated grid expansion
has been underlined several times since last May
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