POWER November 2011 - 26

TOP PLANTs
Four Plants Demonstrate Global
Growth of Nuclear Industry
The global nuclear industry is moving forward at a brisk pace, only slightly
slowed by the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The International Atomic Energy
Agency's most realistic estimate is that 90 new nuclear plants will enter
service by 2030. Ten new nuclear plants went online over the past two
years. We profile four of them as POWER's nuclear Top Plants for 2011.
By Dr. Robert Peltier, PE
N
uclear power generation is a global
enterprise-more so today than ever
before. The Fukushima Daiichi accident
illustrates that what happens in Japan
does not stay in Japan but rather has many
international ramifications for those in the
business of making electricity. In response to
the Japanese disaster, some nations reiterated
their commitment to nuclear power generation,
many just watched and waited, and one
immediately began the process of shutting
down all nuclear plants. The U.S. held hearings,
convened committees, prepared studies,
and concluded that the country's nuclear
plants are still safe.
The U.S. has more operating nuclear
power plants than any other nation on the
planet, a fact often used to argue that the
U.S. is the global nuclear leader. That argument
is no longer persuasive because it
fails to look prospectively at the industry.
Any investor knows that past performance
is not an indicator of future performance,
an observation that applies equally to
nuclear power. An astute investor will
also study the market and identify high
performers before making an investment.
Today, the high performers aren't in Western
countries (North America and Europe)
but are found in China, India, Russia, and
other emerging countries. Unfortunately,
Western countries are more spectator than
participant, either mothballing operating
plants or taking a wait-and-see approach
to new builds.
Growth of nuclear power in the West
was not always in the doldrums. In fact,
Western countries led the growth of nuclear
power from about 1960 to the late
1980s, when their share of global power
generation reached 16%. Over the next
few years, the percentage crept up to
about 20%, a number that has remained
stagnant for about two decades (and, coincidentally,
the share of nuclear power in
26
Table 1. Active global market. As of October 3, 2011, 65 nuclear power plants
were under construction worldwide, representing 62.6 GW. Energy availability factor (EAF)
is the ratio of reference generation less planned, unplanned, and other losses caused by
factors outside the plant, as a percentage. Unit capability factor (UCF) is the ratio of reference
generation less the planned and unplanned losses to reference generation, as a
percentage. For 2010 the worldwide weighted average EAF was 81%, and the worldwide
weighted average UCF was 82%. Source: Compiled from several IAEA reports
Country
Argentina
Brazil
Bulgaria
China (includes Taiwan)
Finland
France
India
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Pakistan
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Ukraine
U.S.
Totals
Taiwan (included in
China numbers)
Number of
units under
construction
1
1
2
27
1
1
6
2
5
1
11
2
2
1
65
2
Plant rating
(MW)
692
1,245
1,906
27,230
1,600
1,600
4,194
2,650
5,560
315
9,153
782
1,900
1,165
62,592
2,600
the U.S.). In the U.S., most of the growth
in electricity produced by nuclear power
over the past two decades is attributable
to significant increases in plant operating
availability and performance uprates, not
new plant builds.
A Global Perspective
The International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) recently completed a reassessment
of global nuclear plant builds in a post-
www.powermag.com
Number of
operating
units
2
2
2
13
4
59
19
56
20
2
31
5
15
104
334
6
2008-2010 average
energy
availability
factor (%)
86.3
83.8
86.2
88.0
93.2
75.6
49.8
62.4
91.6
65.9
81.3
87.2
75.9
90.9
91.1
2008-2010
average unit
capability
factor (%)
86.4
84.1
86.9
88.1
93.7
78.5
75.5
63.0
91.7
65.9
81.6
88.7
78.0
90.9
91.7
Fukushima Daiichi world. IAEA Director
General Yukiya Amano shared those results
in his statement to the 55th Regular Session
of the IAEA General Conference 2011 on
September 19: " Following the Fukushima
Daiichi accident, there was speculation that
the expansion in interest in nuclear power
seen in recent years could come to an end.
However, it is clear that there will, in fact,
be continuous and significant growth in the
use of nuclear power in the next two decades,
POWER | November 2011

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POWER November 2011

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