pwr_july-2024 - 24

MID-YEAR INDUSTRY FORECAST
Measuring the Prospects for
Wind Energy in 2024 and Beyond
The wind energy industry has been on an exponential growth curve for more than a
decade. POWER looks at the drivers behind the growth and predictions for the future.
Aaron Larson
early 200 countries made major
collective pledges on energy at
the United Nations climate summit
(COP28) in Dubai last December.
Many governments recognized that to
achieve the goal of limiting global warming
to 1.5C, energy-related emissions
need to reach net zero by 2050. As
such, they set key goals, which included,
among other things, the tripling of global
renewable energy capacity by 2030. Assuming
targets are applied to all renewable
energy sources equally, that means
global wind power capacity must reach
about 3 TW by the end of the decade. Is
that really possible?
N
2023 Was a Record Year
According to the Global Wind Energy
Council's (GWEC's) Global Wind Report
2024, last year saw the highest number of
new onshore wind power installations in
history-more than 100 GW-and it was
the second-highest for offshore wind (11
GW). Meanwhile, the symbolic milestone
of 1 TW of total installed global wind power
capacity was passed. GWEC says at
the current rate it expects the world to hit
2 TW before 2030, but that isn't the goal
that was set during COP28.
" We must acknowledge, firstly, that
this rate of growth still leaves us far short
of the tripling target, " Jonathan Cole, CEO
of Corio Generation and chair of GWEC,
wrote in the report's Foreword. Cole said
global inflationary pressures, rising cost
of capital, and fragility in the supply chain
affected the industry's ability to ramp up
construction in many regions.
Still, the year-over-year growth in
wind energy installations was astounding-greater
than 50%. Remarkably, that
growth was achieved while the industry
navigated several other obstacles beyond
the issues Cole mentioned. " Despite
the world being fully open following the
global health crisis sparked by COVID-19,
2023 remained an unusual year due to
the challenging macroeconomic environment,
rising and ongoing hostilities,
the Red Sea crisis and prolonged sup24
ply
chain disruptions stemming back to
the time of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "
Feng Zhao, GWEC's head of Strategy
and Market Intelligence, wrote in the report's
Executive Summary.
" Connecting 117 GW of wind power
capacity to the electricity grid in a single
year not only demonstrates the remarkable
resilience and adaptability of the
wind industry but also shows that the
world is moving in the right direction in
combating climate change, " he added.
China, which set a record by commissioning
more than 69 GW of new onshore
wind installations, was the world's
largest market in 2023, followed by the
U.S., Brazil, Germany, and India. Together,
the top five markets made up 82% of
global new installations last year.
A Slowdown in America
Yet, while U.S. installations may rank
highly compared to other countries, the
numbers were disappointing to many
industry insiders, and the sluggishness
has continued this year. The American
Clean Power Association (ACP) released
its most-recent Clean Power Quarterly
Market Report on May 7, covering the
first quarter (Q1) of 2024. The report says,
" Land-based wind had a lackluster quarter,
with just two land-based wind projects
commissioned. " The two projects,
both located in wind-rich Texas, brought a
total of 449 MW of new land-based wind
capacity online in Q1 2024 (Figure 1).
First-quarter installations decreased
by 68% year-over-year in the U.S. It
was the slowest first quarter the wind
industry had experienced since 2018.
Additionally, land-based wind installations
decreased 90% compared to the
previous quarter. ACP blamed the slowdown
on " issues with the supply chain,
siting, and permitting, as well as long
wait times in the interconnection queue.
All of which contributed to lower overall
project deployments. "
Meanwhile, ACP touted Q1 2024
as the best quarter on record for U.S.
offshore wind installations, with the
132-MW South Fork Wind project added
to the grid. Enthusiasm should be
tempered, however, as only 42 MW of
offshore wind had ever been commissioned
in the U.S. prior to that. The earlier
projects were the 30-MW Block Island
wind farm, which entered commercial
operation in December 2016 and won a
POWER Top Plant award the following
year, and the 12-MW Coastal Virginia Offshore
Wind pilot project, which has been
fully operational since fall 2020.
South Fork Wind was a joint offshore
wind project by Ørsted and Eversource.
The project consists of 12 Siemens
Gamesa Renewable Energy 11-MW
SG 11-200 model wind turbines (Figure
2). It was constructed off the coast of
Long Island, New York, and supplies
power to the Long Island Power Authority
through a 20-year power pur1.
NextEra Energy Resources completed the Canyon Wind Energy Center located in Scurry
County, Texas, during the 1st quarter 2024. Courtesy: NextEra Energy Resources
www.powermag.com
POWER | July 2024
http://www.powermag.com
pwr_july-2024

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