pwr_july-2024 - 25

MID-YEAR INDUSTRY FORECAST
2030 and 110 GW by 2050, " Rob Gilbert,
partner at Baringa, told POWER. " These
targets are widely seen as unrealistic. "
Gilbert said the equipment required to
2. The South Fork Wind project consists of 12 turbines off the coast of Long Island, New York.
Courtesy: Ørsted
chase contract. Offshore construction
operations began in March 2023 and
the project began producing electricity
in December last year.
Wind Energy Pipeline Projections
GWEC's Feng Zhao suggested that the
wind industry has become more optimistic
about both short-term and long-term
growth as a result of the COP28 tripling
goal. " With a favourable political environment
across the globe, GWEC Market
Intelligence
believes that 791 GW of
new capacity is likely to be added in the
next five years under current policies.
This equals 158 GW of new installations
each year until 2028, " he wrote. The five
drivers Feng Zhao sees supporting this
growth are:
■ Acceleration of development in Europe
to achieve energy security in the aftermath
of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
■ Investments spurred by the U.S.'s Inflation
Reduction Act.
■ The Chinese government's " 30-60 "
pledge, which, among other things,
sets a target for non-fossil energy
sources to account for more than 80%
of total energy consumption by 2060.
■ The reaffirmation of some governments
and developers to build more
offshore wind-floating wind technology
and power-to-x solutions could
further unlock offshore development.
■ Emerging markets from Southeast
and Central Asia to Middle East and
North Africa countries are expected to
gain momentum.
GWEC predicts the compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) for onshore wind will
be 6.6% over the next five years, with
growth in China, Europe, and the U.S. reJuly
2024 | POWER
maining the backbone of global onshore
wind development. The expected CAGR
for offshore wind, however, is markedly
higher-28% in the next five years. China
and Europe are expected to continue
dominating the offshore market through
2025, but the U.S. and emerging markets
in the Asia Pacific region will start
gaining sizable market share from 2026
onward, according to GWEC.
ACP reported the land-based wind
pipeline in the U.S. totaled about 25.3
GW at the end of Q1 2024, up more
than 5 GW from the same time last
year. Onshore wind under construction
increased by 3.7 GW year over
year, while the volume that met ACP's
definition of advanced development increased
by 1.3 GW.
The U.S. offshore wind sector had
22.9 GW in the pipeline at the end of Q1
2024, according to ACP. However, ACP
noted that the data was compiled prior
to New York's cancellation of its third
solicitation in April. The three projects
canceled in New York were the 1,404MW
Attentive Energy One, the 1,314MW
Community Offshore Wind, and the
1,314-MW Excelsior Wind, which would
presumably decrease the U.S. pipeline
by roughly 4 GW.
Burgeoning Concerns
Meanwhile, potential supply chain issues
could hold the industry back. Findings
from a Baringa report released in
April bring to light several worrisome
constraints. While Baringa's research
was conducted on behalf of the UK's
Department for Energy Security and
Net Zero, the findings apply to markets
around the world.
" The U.S. recently announced ambitious
targets of 30 GW of offshore wind by
www.powermag.com
achieve such targets is significant, and
given the nascency of the offshore wind
industry in the states, there is a lack of
manufacturing capacity to produce these
components on home soil. " The majority
of components will need to be imported, "
he said. " For example, we anticipate
that between now and 2030, more than
1,000 wind turbines-more than 50% of
expected installations-will need to be
imported. This is a challenge considering
the already overburdened European
Union and UK supply chains. "
To emphasize his point, Gilbert noted
that several new wind-related factories
announced in the U.S. have been delayed,
stalled, or canceled. " Siemens
Gamesa canceled plans to build a blade
factory in Portsmouth, Virginia. GE Vernova
and LM Wind Power lost out on
$300 million of grant funding tied to the
New York state round three wind solicitation
after it was canceled. A Marmen
and Welcon tower facility has been delayed
due to skyrocketing supply chain
costs. And Vestas lacks the certainty to
commit to new factories in New York
and New Jersey, " said Gilbert. All of
these setbacks could slow future wind
projects in the U.S.
The Baringa report notes that an initial
surplus of key turbine components
today is projected to become a minor
shortfall
in blades and nacelles, and
a significant shortfall in towers, from
2025 to 2028 due to increased demand,
with intermittent minor shortfalls
thereafter despite the opening of new
factories. The consultancy's modeling
projects a severe shortfall of monopiles
used for fixed-bottom foundations
through 2026, although it expects those
constraints to improve in 2027. A severe
shortfall of high-voltage direct-current
export cables is expected to ease starting
next year, but remain persistent
through 2032. Lastly, despite an initial
surplus of small turbine and foundation
vessels, Baringa's analysis shows
a significant shortfall of Category 2 (12
MW to 15 MW) and Category 3 (greater
than 15 MW) turbine installation vessels
through 2026, with severe shortfalls for
Category 2 and 3 foundation vessels
through 2029, and a severe shortage
of vessels equipped to install cables
through 2032. ■
-Aaron Larson is POWER's
executive editor.
25

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