Avionics News December 2012 - 51

facts and predictions that clarify uncertainty are all professionally defensible, Mooz said. Intuition may be, too, if you can show relevant past experience, as would power pressure. Your judgment of one alternative over another inevitably requires some manner of ranking, ordering or weighing information the rules, experts and facts suggest. Picking a new shop tug should inspire you to establish needs and wants, read reviews in magazines or online posts and evaluate all factors to determine the best fit. Once those facts are established, you can use emotion from a test drive or perk pressure in the way of an incentive to pick among close competitors. “It’s OK to mix several of the judgment factors, but you want to do it in the right order,” Mooz said. Case in point; you wouldn’t want to make a decision to return an aircraft to service based on pressure from the customer, if the doctrine imposed by FAA standards and manufacturer’s instructions indicate it’s not ready. When there’s conflicting information among those sources, you must weigh which is more credible in a manner that lets you sleep at night.

This leads to probability-based judgments about uncertain information, the most rigorous basis, which considers both predictable and unpredictable outcomes. To the first, signing a contract for ad space, while unpredictable in outcome, offers you an estimate. “You’re going to end up making a decision based on extrapolation of relevant past experience once you get that uncertainty down to a manageable level,” Mooz said. To the second, launching a new service unlike anything you’ve done before requires more information. “In that case, you have to take whatever actions you can to reduce the uncertainty,” Mooz said. That includes test marketing, competitor information, surveys, insight and predictions from a team of experts, prototyping and other testing before making investments of time, talent and money. Even if you think the idea is golden and can’t fail, someone will require you to justify yourself if it does. Ultimately, the most efficient decision you can make is one you never regret. Getting there means knowing when the pressure’s off and when the best choices count. q

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Avionics News December 2012

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Avionics News December 2012

Point of Communication
AEA Now
The View From Washington
International News and Regulatory Updates
ADS-B Circa 2013
Member Profile
Family Matters
Remembering Monte R. Mitchell
Before & After
A Conversation With...
History's Caretaker
Pro-to-col
Business Basics
Theory & Practice
AEA Members Make Headlines at NBAA Convention
What's New
Marketplace Classifieds
Avionics News December 2012 - Intro
Avionics News December 2012 - Cover1
Avionics News December 2012 - Cover2
Avionics News December 2012 - 1
Avionics News December 2012 - 2
Avionics News December 2012 - 3
Avionics News December 2012 - Point of Communication
Avionics News December 2012 - 5
Avionics News December 2012 - AEA Now
Avionics News December 2012 - 7
Avionics News December 2012 - 8
Avionics News December 2012 - 9
Avionics News December 2012 - 10
Avionics News December 2012 - 11
Avionics News December 2012 - 12
Avionics News December 2012 - 13
Avionics News December 2012 - The View From Washington
Avionics News December 2012 - 15
Avionics News December 2012 - International News and Regulatory Updates
Avionics News December 2012 - 17
Avionics News December 2012 - 18
Avionics News December 2012 - 19
Avionics News December 2012 - ADS-B Circa 2013
Avionics News December 2012 - 21
Avionics News December 2012 - 22
Avionics News December 2012 - 23
Avionics News December 2012 - Member Profile
Avionics News December 2012 - 25
Avionics News December 2012 - 26
Avionics News December 2012 - 27
Avionics News December 2012 - Family Matters
Avionics News December 2012 - 29
Avionics News December 2012 - 30
Avionics News December 2012 - 31
Avionics News December 2012 - 32
Avionics News December 2012 - 33
Avionics News December 2012 - Remembering Monte R. Mitchell
Avionics News December 2012 - 35
Avionics News December 2012 - 36
Avionics News December 2012 - 37
Avionics News December 2012 - 38
Avionics News December 2012 - Before & After
Avionics News December 2012 - A Conversation With...
Avionics News December 2012 - 41
Avionics News December 2012 - History's Caretaker
Avionics News December 2012 - 43
Avionics News December 2012 - 44
Avionics News December 2012 - 45
Avionics News December 2012 - Pro-to-col
Avionics News December 2012 - 47
Avionics News December 2012 - Business Basics
Avionics News December 2012 - 49
Avionics News December 2012 - 50
Avionics News December 2012 - 51
Avionics News December 2012 - Theory & Practice
Avionics News December 2012 - 53
Avionics News December 2012 - 54
Avionics News December 2012 - 55
Avionics News December 2012 - AEA Members Make Headlines at NBAA Convention
Avionics News December 2012 - 57
Avionics News December 2012 - 58
Avionics News December 2012 - 59
Avionics News December 2012 - 60
Avionics News December 2012 - 61
Avionics News December 2012 - 62
Avionics News December 2012 - 63
Avionics News December 2012 - What's New
Avionics News December 2012 - 65
Avionics News December 2012 - 66
Avionics News December 2012 - 67
Avionics News December 2012 - 68
Avionics News December 2012 - 69
Avionics News December 2012 - Marketplace Classifieds
Avionics News December 2012 - 71
Avionics News December 2012 - 72
Avionics News December 2012 - Cover3
Avionics News December 2012 - Cover4
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