Crop Insurance Today November 2011 - (Page 15)

TODAYcrop insurance Crop Insurance in 2020 By Tom Zacharias, NCIS At the 31st Congress of the International Association of Agricultural Production Insurers held in Athens Greece in September, I was asked to participate in a panel entitled “Risk Management Instruments for Agricultural Production in the Year 2020.” The moderator of the panel was Dr. Kurt Weinberger of Osterreichische Hagel. Other panel participants included: Karl Murr, Munich Re; Maciej Krzysztofowicz, European Commission; and, Ignacio Machetti, Agroseguro. When thinking about the U.S. crop insurance market and the program in the year 2020, it is perhaps useful to think about what our “world” will look like in 2020. Admittedly, one cannot predict this, but we can discuss the major trends we see today and sort them into two categories. First, what trends or factors will increase by the year 2020, and what will we have more of ? Second and conversely, what trends or factors will be decreasing, that is, what will we have less of ? From this, one can draw some conclusions regarding the future of the agricultural production sector and the demand for crop insurance as a tool to manage risk in the sector. Increasing Trends What will we have more of in the year 2020? 1) Population growth – Barring any major global catastrophes or pandemics, we will surely observe increased population growth. The world population hit seven billion people on October 31st, and it is expected that we will easily exceed 8 billion in population by 2025. According to the United Nations, global population is likely to exceed 10 billion by 2100. This growth will put enormous pressure on our natural resource base and, of course, increase CROP INSURANCE TODAY® 15

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Crop Insurance Today November 2011

Primum Non Nocere
Systematic Risk: Crop Insurance in Retrospect and Prospect
The State of U.S. Livestock Insurance
Crop Insurance in 2020
Dr. Wally Nelson Receives Siehl Prize
High Temperature Effects on Corn: How high is to high?
Educating Adjusters for Over Three Decades
On the Road

Crop Insurance Today November 2011