Crop Insurance Today Second Quarter 2019 - 12

3000000

35%

2500000

30%

2000000

25%

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1000000

15%

500000

5%

0

0%

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00
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9

1000 MTs.

World Grains & Oilseeds Production and Consumption
Figure 7 U.S. & World Stocks/Use %

Crop Year
US Stocks to Use

World Stocks to Use

World Production

World Consumption

Source: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery

lion acres, down five percent from the previous
year. Hurricanes Florence and Michael devastated what were very promising cotton crops in
Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. In Texas, a
large part of the state's dryland cotton crop did
not make it to harvest due to excess heat and lack
of rainfall. Texas production was down 25 percent, Georgia production fell by over 12 percent,
and the Carolinas produced six percent less compared to the previous season.
The 2018 U.S. edible dry bean crop was up
four percent from last year at 37.5 million cwt.
The increase in production was attributable to
the third highest yield on record-1,860 pounds
per acre-which offset a slight decline in acreage.
Lentils and dry-edible pea production were up 12
percent at 8.41 million cwt. and 15.9 million cwt.
respectively. Lentil production increased on the
strength of a 60 percent increase in yields, attributable to favorable growing conditions as acreage
declined by 30 percent overall. Similarly, dry edible pea yields increased by 46 percent from the
previous year's drought plagued crop, offsetting a
23 percent decline in acreage.
Hay crop production declined for the second
year in a row. All dry hay production in 2018 was
124 million tons, four percent below the revised
2017 total. The production shortfall was linked to
lower yields, down over three percent at 2.34 tons
per acre, which offset the less than one percent
increase in acreage of 52.8 million acres. Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures production was down six
percent and came in below 2017 levels. Lower
12

SECONDQUARTER2019

yields, down over three percent combined with
a two percent reduction in acreage, accounted for
the production decline. In large part, the reductions were linked to dry conditions in the Four
Corners States and excess moisture in the Ohio
River Valley throughout much of 2018.
The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) reports production estimates for
26 vegetable and melon crops in the U.S. In 2018,
the utilized production for those 26 crops totaled
747 million cwt, one percent below the previous
year. Area harvested in 2018 was 2.50 million
acres, representing a three percent reduction
from the previous year. The top three vegetables,
in terms of area harvested, were sweet corn, tomatoes, and snap beans. In terms of total production, the three largest crops were tomatoes, sweet
corn, and onions, which combined accounted for
56 percent of the all vegetables total.
The value of the utilized production of the
2018 vegetable crops was $12.9 billion down 12
percent from last year. Tomatoes, head lettuce,
and romaine lettuce are the highest value crops,
accounting for a combined 31 percent of the total. Large scale recalls due to food safety issues
contributed to a 45 percent decline in the 2018
romaine lettuce crop value and a 31 percent decline in the value of the head lettuce crop from
the previous year. These negative effects were
partially offset by an 11 percent increase in the
value of the 2018 tomato crop. Utilized production of tomatoes includes 19.6 million cwt. for
fresh market sales and 12.8 million tons for pro-

cessing. The damage to the Florida crop, related
to Hurricane Michael, was offset by record high
yields in California, Indiana, and Ohio.
The production of citrus in the United States
continued to decline, the 2017/18 total of 6.13
million tons was 20 percent below the previous
season and 66 percent lower than the record
production of 17.8 million tons in the 1997/98
season. Commercial citrus production is concentrated in four states: California, with 59 percent,
Florida with 36 percent, and the combined total
of Texas and Arizona, accounting for the remaining five percent. The value of the crop in 2017/18
was down seven percent, at $3.28 billion (packing house door equivalent). Declining prices for
oranges, grapefruits and lemons contributed to
the fall in value, with easy peelers (tangerines
and mandarins) recording a one percent increase
in value. The Florida citrus growers continue to
attempt to recover from the damages inflicted
by Hurricane Irma, estimated at $761 million,
Hurricane Michael that damaged vegetables ($9
million), pecans ($4 million), other fruit ($4 million), as well as dairies ($6 million) and poultry/
egg ($10 million) producers.
[Information sources for this section include
USDA NASS, Quick Stats available at http://www.
nass. usda.gov/Quick Stats/index.php and the
following annual reports: Crop Production 2018
Summary, February 2019; Vegetables 2018 Summary, March 2109; Citrus Fruits 2018 Summary,
August,2018]

Commodity Market
Developments

The combined global production and consumption of grains and oilseeds is projected to be
close to in balance in 2018-19. Global consumption is estimated to narrowly exceed global production by 0.5 percent, resulting in a drawdown
of global ending stocks of around two percent
from the previous year (Figure 7). World oilseed
ending stocks are expected to increase to over
123 million metric tons, up 6.8 percent from the
previous year, led by the large increase in U.S.
stocks and lesser increases in Canada and Argentina. Uncertainty continues to plague the market
with the continuing trade conflict between the
United States and China weighing on prices and
planting decisions for the coming year.
In contrast, world coarse grain ending stocks
continue to decline, down by almost eight percent from 2017. Again, this year the reduction is


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery http://www.nass http://www.usda.gov/Quick http://stats/index.php http://www.nass

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