Crop Insurance Today Second Quarter 2019 - 13

Figure 8 U.S. Prices and Ending Stocks as a % of Total Use 2000-2018
Corn

Soybeans

25%

$15.00
$14.00

$8.00

25%

$7.00

$13.00

20%

$12.00

20%

$6.00
$5.00

15%

$11.00

15%

$10.00

$4.00
10%

$3.00

$9.00
10%

$8.00
$7.00

$2.00
5%

5%

$6.00

$1.00
$5.00
$0.00

20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18

0%

0%

$4.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0419.pdf

due largely to the decline in corn ending stocks,
down more than seven percent from last year to
about 314 million metric tons. The reduction in
global corn stocks is associated with a significant
drawdown of stocks in China. The tighter supplies have provided modest price support for the
year's crop and weather concerns recording new
crop plantings may be expected to contribute to
some upward movement in world corn prices.
Global wheat production declined by four
percent from the previous year to its lowest level in four years. Even though the U.S. crop was
larger than the previous year, it was not sufficient
to offset declines in production in other regions.
The primary decline in production occurred in

the European Union (EU) which recorded its
smallest crop in six years. Likewise, continuing drought conditions in Australia resulted
in the lowest level of output in over a decade.
The Russian crop was down from 2017 but was
still the third largest crop on record. The tighter supplies put upward pressure on prices and
resulted in reduced consumption, largely in the
feed and residual use category. Feed and residual use is down five percent to its lowest level
since 2014/15 as abundant corn supplies displace
higher priced wheat in feed rations. Lower supplies were enough to lead to a reduction in ending stocks, despite reduced consumption levels.
Stocks outside of China declined by 10 percent

to their lowest level in five years. The resulting
world stocks to use ratio stands at 22 percent; the
tightest in over ten years and should produce upward pressure on prices going forward. Chinese
wheat stocks, while accounting for more than 50
percent of total global stocks, are not generally in
play in world markets.
The U.S. wheat production increased by eight
percent from 2017 with slight increases in exports and upward movement in feed use resulting in a small reduction in overall ending stocks.
However, stocks remain significantly above average levels over the past five years, particularly
for hard red winter and hard red spring. With
an overall stocks-to-use ratio of 53 percent, it is

Figure 9 U.S. Farm Prices Paid and Received for Crops & Animals 2000-2018
120

180
160

100
80

120
100

60

80
60

40

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Crop Prices Received

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2003

2002

2001

2000

2018

0

2004

Crop Prices Paid

20

2017

2015
2016

2014

2013

2012

Livestock Prices Received

2009

2007
2008

2006

2005

2002

2001

0

2003
2004

Livestock Paid

20

2010
2011

40

2000

2011 = 100

140

Source: USDA, NASS, Quick Stats http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov

CROPINSURANCE TODAY®

13


http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0419.pdf http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov

Crop Insurance Today Second Quarter 2019

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https://www.nxtbook.com/allen/cint/54-1
https://www.nxtbook.com/allen/cint/53-4
https://www.nxtbook.com/allen/cint/53-03
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https://www.nxtbook.com/allen/cint/52-04
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http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/51-04
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http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/51-01
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/50-04
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/50-3
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/50-2
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/50-1
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/49-4
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/49-3
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/may2016
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/february2016
http://www.brightcopy.net/allen/cint/november2015
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