Crop Insurance Today Second Quarter 2019 - 13
Figure 8 U.S. Prices and Ending Stocks as a % of Total Use 2000-2018
Corn
Soybeans
25%
$15.00
$14.00
$8.00
25%
$7.00
$13.00
20%
$12.00
20%
$6.00
$5.00
15%
$11.00
15%
$10.00
$4.00
10%
$3.00
$9.00
10%
$8.00
$7.00
$2.00
5%
5%
$6.00
$1.00
$5.00
$0.00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
0%
0%
$4.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0419.pdf
due largely to the decline in corn ending stocks,
down more than seven percent from last year to
about 314 million metric tons. The reduction in
global corn stocks is associated with a significant
drawdown of stocks in China. The tighter supplies have provided modest price support for the
year's crop and weather concerns recording new
crop plantings may be expected to contribute to
some upward movement in world corn prices.
Global wheat production declined by four
percent from the previous year to its lowest level in four years. Even though the U.S. crop was
larger than the previous year, it was not sufficient
to offset declines in production in other regions.
The primary decline in production occurred in
the European Union (EU) which recorded its
smallest crop in six years. Likewise, continuing drought conditions in Australia resulted
in the lowest level of output in over a decade.
The Russian crop was down from 2017 but was
still the third largest crop on record. The tighter supplies put upward pressure on prices and
resulted in reduced consumption, largely in the
feed and residual use category. Feed and residual use is down five percent to its lowest level
since 2014/15 as abundant corn supplies displace
higher priced wheat in feed rations. Lower supplies were enough to lead to a reduction in ending stocks, despite reduced consumption levels.
Stocks outside of China declined by 10 percent
to their lowest level in five years. The resulting
world stocks to use ratio stands at 22 percent; the
tightest in over ten years and should produce upward pressure on prices going forward. Chinese
wheat stocks, while accounting for more than 50
percent of total global stocks, are not generally in
play in world markets.
The U.S. wheat production increased by eight
percent from 2017 with slight increases in exports and upward movement in feed use resulting in a small reduction in overall ending stocks.
However, stocks remain significantly above average levels over the past five years, particularly
for hard red winter and hard red spring. With
an overall stocks-to-use ratio of 53 percent, it is
Figure 9 U.S. Farm Prices Paid and Received for Crops & Animals 2000-2018
120
180
160
100
80
120
100
60
80
60
40
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Crop Prices Received
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2003
2002
2001
2000
2018
0
2004
Crop Prices Paid
20
2017
2015
2016
2014
2013
2012
Livestock Prices Received
2009
2007
2008
2006
2005
2002
2001
0
2003
2004
Livestock Paid
20
2010
2011
40
2000
2011 = 100
140
Source: USDA, NASS, Quick Stats http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov
CROPINSURANCE TODAY®
13
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0419.pdf
http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov
Crop Insurance Today Second Quarter 2019
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