InTents December2022/January 2023 - 8

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IFAI Expo keynote address highlights
A
t the IFAI Expo keynote address,
noted economist Dr. Elliot Eisenberg
attempted to answer the question on
everyone's mind these days: " Are we in
a recession? "
His answer? " We're not in a recession
yet...but we're going to get there. "
The pandemic may be over, but the econAt
the Expo keynote address, Dr. Elliot
Eisenberg cautioned attendees that a
recession is on the horizon for 2023,
though he felt hopeful it would last only
a year or so.
omy is sinking. Around 70% of U.S. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) is household
consumption and, as the last of the COVID
stimulus money exits the system, discretionary
spending is rapidly drying up.
" Spending went crazy during COVID and
we pulled forward a lot of demand, " Eisenberg
explained. " Now people don't want to
buy things. We are seeing them pivot from
buying goods to buying services. "
But Eisenberg noted that there are some
bright spots on the current economic
landscape. Oil prices have come down signiicantly,
which will help decrease shipping
costs. Supply chains still face challenges
but have noticeably improved.
Trucking demand has softened, spot container
prices have practically fallen off
a cliff, and material costs will decrease
going forward.
" Inlation will come down, " he said. " The
question is how much and how quickly. "
Unfortunately, the good news did not
extend to the labor market. He noted
that there are currently 1.7 jobs per person
in the U.S., due in part to so many
Baby Boomers deciding to retire early
as well as the 1.1 million excess COVID
deaths, of which 400,000 were employees.
The subsequent worker shortage
is fueling the rise in wages, as are varying
levels of inlation throughout the
global economy.
As for when the recession is likely to
begin, he predicted, " Typically, we see
two years between rate hiking and the
start of a recession. But the Fed is hiking
very quickly, raising rates four times in
four meetings, and will probably continue
to hike them into 2023, so I think it
will hit much earlier-sometime around
the end of Q1, probably no later than the
end of Q2 in 2023. "
However, he was quick to note that
he doesn't think it will be a very deep
recession for the U.S., concluding with
the hopeful prediction that it will last
" maybe 12 months. "
Tent Conference 2023
TENT
CONFERENCE
8 intents dec 2022-jan 2023
Registration is now open for TRD's 2023 Tent Conference, scheduled
for January 11-13, at the Hyatt Regency Savannah in Savannah, Ga.
This year's event aims to give the next generation of tenters a valuable
opportunity to learn, network and collaborate with tent industry
experts. It features a robust educational component designed to grow
businesses, as well as access to the industry's top material suppliers.
For suppliers, the conference provides access to a targeted customer
base in a single location. It also offers three days of opportunities to
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information on what your customers need.
For more details, visit textiles.org/tentconference.
http://www.textiles.org/tentconference
InTents December2022/January 2023

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