Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 22

2
2022 | energized!
HIGH POINTS AND HIGHLIGHTS
IFAI Expo keynote address
Dr. Elliot Eisenberg answers
" Are we in a recession? "
A
t the IFAI Expo keynote address, noted
economist Dr. Elliot Eisenberg attempted
to answer the question on everyone's mind these
days: " Are we in a recession? "
His answer? " We're not in a recession yet...
but we're going to get there. "
The pandemic may be over, but the economy is
sinking. Around 70% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) is household consumption and, as the last
of the COVID stimulus money exits the system,
discretionary spending is rapidly drying up.
" Spending went crazy during COVID and we pulled
forward a lot of demand, " Eisenberg explains. " Now
people don't want to buy things; they are shifting to
spending money on experiences. We are seeing them
pivot from buying goods to buying services. "
That's if they're spending any money at all on nonessential
purchases. Inflation has caused real per
capita disposable income to fall by $700 from preCOVID
levels, leaving many consumers unable to pay
their bills. " Americans are charging things on their
credit cards like there's no tomorrow, " he notes.
But while the dollar may be weakening here in the
U.S., other nations' currencies are weakening more
rapidly, causing a dramatic increase in demand for
dollars as most international debts are denominated
in dollars. This demand is pushing up the value of
the dollar, and will continue to do so in the months
to come. A strengthening dollar will create growing
headwinds for U.S. exporters, particularly as the
European Union, the U.K., Japan and others deal with
a growing energy crisis and economic recessions.
But Eisenberg notes that there are some bright
spots on the current economic landscape. Oil
prices have come down significantly, which will help
decrease shipping costs. Supply chains still face
challenges but have noticeably improved. Trucking
demand has softened, spot container prices have
practically fallen off a cliff, and material costs will
decrease going forward.
22 SPECIALTY FABRICS REVIEW / December 2022
There are currently 1.7 jobs per person
in the U.S., due in part to so many Baby
Boomers deciding to retire early as well
as the 1.1 million excess COVID deaths.
" Inflation will come down, " he says. " The question
is how much and how quickly. "
Unfortunately, the good news did not extend to the
labor market. He noted that there are currently 1.7
jobs per person in the U.S., due in part to so many
Baby Boomers deciding to retire early as well as the
1.1 million excess COVID deaths, of which 400,000
were employees. The subsequent worker shortage
is fueling the rise in wages, as are varying levels of
inflation throughout the global economy.
As for when the recession is likely to begin, he
predicted, " Typically, we see two years between
rate hiking and the start of a recession. But the
Fed is hiking very quickly, raising rates four times
in four meetings, and will probably continue to hike
them into 2023, so I think it will hit much earlier-
sometime around the end of Q1, probably no later
than the end of Q2 in 2023. "
However, he was quick to note that he doesn't
think it will be a very deep recession for the U.S.
" Maybe 12 months, " he says.

Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022

Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - Cover1
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - Cover2
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 1
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 2
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 3
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Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 5
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 6
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 7
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 8
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Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 17
Specialty Fabrics Review December 2022 - 18
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