The Crush - January 2021 - 5

STATE FOCUS

Newsom Recall
By Michael Miiller
A campaign to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom is gaining more media
and voter attention. However, in considering whether this effort
has real potential, we need to first look back at the 2003 recall of
Gov. Gray Davis.
DUMP DAVIS
In November 2002, Gov. Davis (D) was reelected by defeating
Republican Bill Simon by a five-point margin. Davis was recalled
only 12 months later by a 10-point margin.
The signature gathering campaign to recall Davis was centered
on a few key issues, including the energy crisis, increasing
vehicle fees, high workers' compensation costs and large
contracts to public labor unions. However, the underlying
message that resonated most was that Davis lacked charisma and
leadership and had lost touch with voters.
The " Dump Davis " recall campaign was primarily funded by
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-El Cajon), who originally hoped to replace
Davis himself. A major factor in the success of the recall was
that Arnold Schwarzenegger decided to run for governor. In the
media circus of 135 candidates for governor, the top three were
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 49%, Cruz Bustamante (D) 32% and
Tom McClintock (R) 13%. 	
WHAT IS A RECALL?
The California recall process was created in 1911 as the result of
reforms that spread across the United States in the late 19th and
early 20th centuries. The ability to recall elected officials was
part of the initiative and referendum processes created to hold
government officials accountable.
To trigger an election for recall of the governor, proponents must
gather statewide signatures that are equal to 12% of the total
votes cast in the previous gubernatorial election. For a Newsom
recall to qualify for the ballot, proponents must collect nearly 1.5
million signatures by March 17, 2021. Proponents may want as
many as 2 million signatures in case some signatures are invalid.
Once the recall has qualified, a recall election will be scheduled.
In that election, voters would essentially be asked two questions:
1.	Should the governor be recalled from office?
2.	If recalled, among the list of candidates, who should replace
the governor?
If, by majority vote, the voters choose to recall the governor,
the top vote getter then becomes governor in a few weeks upon
certification of the election.

WILL NEWSOM BE RECALLED?
In answering this question, we
must consider that only one
California governor has been
recalled. Five efforts to recall
Newsom have already failed,
as there are major challenges in
gathering signatures.
Typical costs are between $3 and
$6 per signature to hire signature
gathering companies to circulate
the recall petition. As there
have been more than 1 million
signatures gathered thus far, proponents would need roughly $2
million in additional funding. A recent $500,000 influx of funding
helps. The additional challenge in gathering signatures is that
COVID-19 restrictions hamper proponents' ability to gather
signatures in public places, such as entrances to grocery stores.
If a recall qualifies for the ballot, the biggest hurdle may be
that California is bluer today than it was in 2003 and Newsom
remains popular with Democrats. Additionally, there is no
popular candidate yet identified to replace Newsom. Absent
a popular opponent, the question of the recall becomes more
difficult as voters ponder a " bird in the hand " kind of decision.
In the 2003 recall, voters saw Schwarzenegger as a popular and
viable option. While Newsom would not have an opponent of
equal popularity, he would face significant challenges due to the
pandemic.
Early on, California was seen as leading the nation in responding
to COVID-19. That public perception changed substantially
in recent months. Additionally, media coverage of Newsom's
November 2020 dinner at the French Laundry will be used in an
attempt to convince voters that Newsom does not comply with
the COVID-19 rules he foisted upon the rest of us.
In the months ahead, Newsom needs to decide whether to lean
left to shore up his base or lean right to deal with concerns of
moderate voters. Both approaches come with risks.
Gov. Hiram Johnson, a Republican and reformist, created the
recall process, calling it a " precautionary measure by which a
recalcitrant official can be removed. " Newsom's executive orders,
shutdowns, distribution of vaccines, testing efforts and other
pandemic actions would weigh heavily on voters who would
decide whether he is recalcitrant or should continue to serve.

CAWG.ORG 5
https://www.recallgavin2020.com/ https://www.recallgavin2020.com/ https://www.cawg.org/
The Crush - January 2021

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