CE Pro January 2022 - 4

From the Editor
by Jason Knott
Build Your 8-Year
Business Plan - NOW!
The
combination
of the aging U.S.
population, rising
healthcare costs,
commitment
to entitlement
spending,
inflation and the
national debt will
lead to a Great
Depression by
2030.
IF YOU DON'T HAVE an eight-year business
plan in place, you might want to consider
making one quickly. According to the keynote
speaker at the 2021 Total Tech Summit, a Great
Depression is coming in 2030 and it looks like
it is irreversible. You read that correctly - a
" Great Depression " (not a recession) that will
be on par with the Great Depression of the
1930s is coming in eight years.
This isn't meant to be a Debbie Downer
message - indeed, if you are armed with
the knowledge of where the economy is
likely heading over the next eight years, it will
allow you to plan ahead accordingly and be
prepared to effectively weather the storm by
treading water or even gaining market share.
" Depressions are the greatest time periods
for building wealth, " said renowned economist
Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics
during her TTS keynote.
She spent nearly one hour at the November
Jason Knott is editor
of CE Pro. He can be
reached at jason.knott@
emeraldx.com and
@JasonWKnott
event in Orlando running attendees through
an array of demographic data, leading and
lagging economic indicators, and inflation
statistics that give ITR insights into the future.
The data is not guesswork or mumbo jumbo;
ITR has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in the
predictions it made about the world economies
when the pandemic first hit two years
ago. Some of the leading indicators include
single-family housing starts, non-residential
construction, architectural billings, etc.
In a nutshell, ITR sees the next eight years
playing out like this. In 2022, there will be
slower growth than there was in 2021. " Slower
growth " does not mean negative growth, but
it means low single-digit increases in the U.S.
GDP. By 2025, ITR anticipates a very minor recession
to occur; one that Saidel-Baker called
a " pothole in the road " it will be so negligible.
Following that minor recession, there will be a
return to solid growth in the economy.
But that is when the you-know-what will
hit the fan. The combination of the aging U.S.
4 | CE Pro January 2022
population, rising healthcare costs, commitment
to entitlement spending, inflation and
the national debt will be too much for the
U.S. economy to handle by 2030, according
to Saidel-Baker. How bad is it? Right now, the
federal government deficit spending is so big
that every individual American would owe
$85,800 to balance the budget.
The only way to stop the Great Depression
from coming would be if politicians
in Washington, D.C., decide to tackle the
problem and make some hard decisions, but
Saidel-Baker noted that there is little to no
political will to do that. Thus, the downturn
in inevitable.
She also had a word of warning for integrators
about the current inflation situation.
According to the data, while the overall U.S.
inflation rate jumped an alarming 6.25% last
fall, it will likely get worse. That's because the
inflation rate at the manufacturing level is
a whopping 12.1%. That means your suppliers
are only passing along half of their cost
increases to integrators currently. Saidel-Baker
does not believe manufacturers will be
able to sustain that for long, and she expects
those price hikes to hit end users soon.
Inflation is also hitting wages. According to
ITR data, the cost of hiring a new employee
spiked 9.1% in 2021 compared to 2020. If
integrators have to pay much higher wages to
attract employees, they need to make sure
they are charging appropriately to cover it.
So now that you are armed with this
knowledge, what are you going to do with it?
You can build out a business model that has
your integration company prepared in terms
of cash flow, profits, " right-sizing " the number
of employees, avoiding major risks and other
vital areas.
" I know some of you are thinking, 'I will be
retired and on a golf course by 2030 so it won't
matter,' " says Saidel-Baker. " But your kids won't
- and they know where you live! "
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CE Pro January 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of CE Pro January 2022

CE Pro January 2022 - Intro
CE Pro January 2022 - Cover1
CE Pro January 2022 - Cover2
CE Pro January 2022 - 1
CE Pro January 2022 - 2
CE Pro January 2022 - 3
CE Pro January 2022 - 4
CE Pro January 2022 - 5
CE Pro January 2022 - 6
CE Pro January 2022 - 7
CE Pro January 2022 - 8
CE Pro January 2022 - 9
CE Pro January 2022 - 10
CE Pro January 2022 - 11
CE Pro January 2022 - 12
CE Pro January 2022 - 13
CE Pro January 2022 - 14
CE Pro January 2022 - 15
CE Pro January 2022 - 16
CE Pro January 2022 - 17
CE Pro January 2022 - 18
CE Pro January 2022 - 19
CE Pro January 2022 - 20
CE Pro January 2022 - 21
CE Pro January 2022 - 22
CE Pro January 2022 - 23
CE Pro January 2022 - 24
CE Pro January 2022 - 25
CE Pro January 2022 - 26
CE Pro January 2022 - 27
CE Pro January 2022 - 28
CE Pro January 2022 - 29
CE Pro January 2022 - 30
CE Pro January 2022 - 31
CE Pro January 2022 - 32
CE Pro January 2022 - 33
CE Pro January 2022 - 34
CE Pro January 2022 - 35
CE Pro January 2022 - 36
CE Pro January 2022 - 37
CE Pro January 2022 - 38
CE Pro January 2022 - 39
CE Pro January 2022 - 40
CE Pro January 2022 - 41
CE Pro January 2022 - 42
CE Pro January 2022 - 43
CE Pro January 2022 - 44
CE Pro January 2022 - 45
CE Pro January 2022 - 46
CE Pro January 2022 - 47
CE Pro January 2022 - 48
CE Pro January 2022 - 49
CE Pro January 2022 - 50
CE Pro January 2022 - 51
CE Pro January 2022 - 52
CE Pro January 2022 - 53
CE Pro January 2022 - 54
CE Pro January 2022 - 55
CE Pro January 2022 - 56
CE Pro January 2022 - 57
CE Pro January 2022 - 58
CE Pro January 2022 - 59
CE Pro January 2022 - 60
CE Pro January 2022 - 61
CE Pro January 2022 - 62
CE Pro January 2022 - 63
CE Pro January 2022 - 64
CE Pro January 2022 - Cover3
CE Pro January 2022 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/november_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/october_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/september_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/august_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/july_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/june_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/may_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/april_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/march_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/february_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/january_2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/december_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/november_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/october_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/september_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/august_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/july_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/june_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/may_2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/emerald/cepro/cepro_april_2021
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